Calculating the Odds: Atlanta Hawks Odds in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery

Of the 14 NBA teams entering Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery, the Atlanta Hawks have the 10th best odds to land the top pick in the draft, as well as the 10th best odds to land a top pick. Top 4 in the NBA overall rankings. Draft which will take place on June 26 and 27.

The lottery process determines which teams will fill the top four spots in the draft; the remaining ten teams are then ranked in order based on their 2023-24 regular season winning percentage. As a result, one thing we already know is that the Hawks will not emerge from Sunday’s lottery process with a pick in the 5-9 range. These results are mathematically impossible. They will either jump into the top 4 or end up with a pick that ends up 10th or lower.

The most likely outcome, by far, is that the Hawks end up with the 10th overall pick. There are 65.91 percent that the choice remains in 10th place. The second most likely outcome is that they fall to 11th place. After these two, the next most likely results involve them moving into the top four spots.

Below is the full list of probabilities, ordered from most likely to least:

With no prior trades involving this pick, there is also no contingency in play. The Hawks will finish Sunday with a top-14 pick in hand. The actual lottery procedure takes place off stage, in a separate room, before the television broadcast. Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 to 14 are placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, regardless of their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of these 1,001 combinations are awarded to the 14 participating lottery teams. The Hawks will be awarded 30 of the 1000 combinations.

The drawing process goes as follows: the 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and shuffled for 20 seconds, then the first ball is selected. The process is then repeated three more times at 10 second intervals. The team assigned this four number combination will receive the No. 1 pick.

This process is repeated with the same ping pong balls and the same machine for picks #2, 3 and 4.

If the same team appears more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Additionally, if the only unassigned combination of 11-12-13-14 is drawn, the result is ignored and the process is repeated. This is what the selection process looked like in 2023.

Sunday will mark the 40th NBA lottery since its inception in 1985. The Hawks themselves have participated in 14 of those 40 drawings, landing the top 4 in 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2018, but never returning home with the first overall pick .

You could say the Hawks are entitled to a little luck, and hopefully they’ll have it this weekend.