Iran warns Israel of a “devastating” war in case of an attack on Lebanon

DUBAI: A moderate politician and a protégé of Iran’s supreme leader are neck and neck in vote counts in early presidential elections marked by voter disinterest in the face of economic hardship and social restrictions.
So far, more than 14 million votes have been counted in Friday’s vote. The only moderate candidate, Massoud Pezeshkian, won more than 5.9 million votes, while his hardline challenger and former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili won more than 5.5 million, according to preliminary results from the Interior Ministry.
Some insiders said voter turnout was around 40 percent, lower than Iranian clerics had expected. Eyewitnesses said polling stations in Tehran and some other cities were not crowded.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said a runoff vote to elect the next president was “highly likely” following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
If no candidate receives at least 50 percent plus one vote of all votes cast (including invalid votes), a run-off election between the two leading candidates will be held on the first Friday after the result is announced.
The elections coincide with an escalation in regional tensions due to the war between Israel and its Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increasing Western pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.
While the election is unlikely to bring about a major shift in the Islamic Republic’s policies, its outcome could impact the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader who has been in power since 1989.
The church establishment sought to counteract a crisis of legitimacy through high voter turnout, which was fuelled by popular discontent in the face of economic difficulties and the restriction of political and social freedoms.
The next president is not expected to initiate a major change in policy regarding Iran’s nuclear program or support for militia groups in the Middle East, as Khamenei holds sway over all major state affairs.
However, the president directs the day-to-day affairs of the government and can influence the tone of Iranian foreign and domestic policy.
Pezeshkian’s views are in contrast to those of Jalili: he advocates détente with the West, economic reforms, social liberalization and political pluralism.
The victory of Jalili, a staunch anti-Westerner, would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic’s foreign and domestic policies, analysts said.

LIMITED SELECTION
Three hardline candidates and one moderate candidate loyal to the supreme leader ran in the election. A hardline control panel allowed only six candidates to run from an initial pool of 80, and two hardline candidates later dropped out.
“According to unconfirmed reports, the election will most likely go to a runoff… Jalili and Pezeshkian will face each other in a runoff,” Tasnim reported.
Critics of the clerical establishment say low voter turnout in recent years shows that the legitimacy of the system has eroded. Turnout in the 2021 presidential election was 48 percent, and only 41 percent of voters cast their ballots in the parliamentary elections in March, a record low.
All candidates have promised to revive the ailing economy, which has suffered from mismanagement, government corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Tehran.
“I think Jalili is the only candidate who takes up the issue of justice, fighting corruption and respecting the poor. … Most importantly, he does not link Iranian foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” says Farzan, a 45-year-old artist from the city of Karaj.

SPLIT VOTERS
Pezeshkian is a staunch supporter of Iran’s theocratic rule and is supported by the reform faction that has been largely marginalized in Iran in recent years.
“We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior towards women,” Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.
He was referring to the death of young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in 2022, who was in the custody of the morality police for allegedly violating the Islamic dress code.
The unrest triggered by Amini’s death escalated into the largest protest against Iran’s clerical rulers in years.
Pezeshkian has sought to revive the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls over the past four years as the largely young population resents political and social restrictions. He may also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hard-line electorate.
In recent weeks, the hashtag #ElectionCircus has been frequently used in Iran for election campaign purposes. Some activists at home and abroad called for a boycott, as a high voter turnout would only serve to legitimize the Islamic Republic.