Odds, predictions and forecasts for the Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves game on July 7

July 5, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryson Stott (5) steals second base from Atlanta Braves Ozzie Albies (1) in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

• NL East heavyweights Philadelphia and Atlanta meet in the deciding game of a three-game series on Sunday
• Phillies send rookie Michael Mercado to the mound against NL Cy Young contender Reynaldo Lopez
• Check out Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions for July 7

Already nine games ahead of the Atlanta Braves (48-39, 28-17 home) in the NL East standings, the Philadelphia Phillies (58-31, 25-17 away) can extend their lead with a series victory over their division rival Sunday afternoon at Truist Park (1:35 p.m. ET).

The Phillies won the series opener 8-6 but were beaten by starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach last night in a 5-1 victory in Atlanta.

On Sunday, the Phillies hand the ball to a rookie – Michael Mercado – while the Braves counter with veteran Reynaldo Lopez, who is having a breakout year in his first season with Atlanta.

It’s rare for Philly to be a significant underdog this season, but that’s the case in the Phillies vs. Braves odds for Sunday in light of the pitching experience gap.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves odds

Atlanta is a -166 home favorite for the series finale and +124 to win by multiple runs. The Phillies return as away underdogs at +140 and sit at -148 on the run line to stay within a run. The over/under is 8.5 with the under slightly favored at -118.

Odds current as of July 7 on DraftKings. Download the best MLB betting apps to bet on Sunday’s action.

Despite the best record in baseball, the Phillies (+500) remain second in World Series odds behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+320). Atlanta, which began the season competing with the Yankees for second place, has slipped to fifth at +900.

PHI vs ATL starting pitchers for July 7

A former second-round pick of the Rays in 2017, Mercado, 25, has already undergone Tommy John surgery. Finally healthy, the 6-foot-4 right-hander impressed in his first two major league appearances. He pitched a scoreless inning in relief against Detroit on June 24 (no hits, no walks, one strikeout) and went 5.0 innings against the Cubs in his first career start on July 2, allowing just one run on two hits and two walks with four strikeouts in Philly’s 6-4 victory.

He never faced a player on the Braves roster during his brief major league stint.

Michael Mercado vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Reynaldo Lopez has been a mainstay in Atlanta’s rotation this season, going 6-2 with a dazzling 1.83 ERA. His excellent first half of the season has helped him climb into the National League Cy Young odds, where he currently sits sixth at +2800.

Still, Lopez’s peripheral characteristics suggest he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year: He has a 4.31 xERA and a 3.82 xFIP.

While this is Lopez’s first start against the Phillies this year and his first season in the National League, there’s a long history between the nine-year veteran and Phillies hitters, and it’s not great for Lopez. In 91 total at-bats, Philly hitters are batting .319 and have an .882 OPS against the 6-foot-1 right-hander.

Lopez has also looked shaky, in general, in his last two starts. He’s managed to throw 9.1 innings total, but with eight hits and eight walks — which equates to a 1.758 WHIP — and four earned runs.

Phillies vs Braves Predictions and Betting Tips

The Phillies have the best record and run differential in the league, and on Sunday they’ll be facing a starter they’re more than comfortable playing against. Mercado is certainly a question mark, but he has a very talented arm (95.7 MPH average fastball velocity) and has the advantage of facing Atlanta for the first time.

At +140, the Phillies have just a 41.67% implied win probability, which is a great price on the moneyline for Philadelphia to win this game and another series in the process, which would move them to 5-0-1 in their last six series.

PHI vs ATL Choice: Phillies Moneyline (+140)

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