New AJC Poll Finds Trump Leading Harris in Georgia Game

THE investigation A survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs between July 9 and 18. — a volatile period in the presidential race. It has arrived as some senior Democrats stepped up efforts to oust Biden, 81, from the race and also encompassed parts of the Republican National Convention and the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Polls could change now that Biden has stepped aside — and some prominent Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and influential South Carolina U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, have already endorsed Harris.

Trey Hood, the UGA political scientist who oversaw the survey, noted that when he probed the Trump vs. Harris question, it was a hypothetical. Sunday’s news, he said, “certainly sets things straight.”

“There are a lot of decisions that are going to be made by different people interacting with each other, and nobody knows what the consequences of all those decisions are going to be,” he said. “We don’t have enough information yet, especially about the final Democratic nominee, to really say much.”

Still, the poll suggests Harris has some way to go in Georgia, a battleground state that Biden narrowly won four years ago, handing the state to Democrats for the first time in nearly three decades. As vice president, she made several visits to the state this year, bolstering support among black voters.

Credits: Hyosub Shin/AJC

Credits: Hyosub Shin/AJC

The AJC poll found that independents, a crucial voting bloc in Georgia, sided with Trump by 11 votes. percentage points. And a majority of respondents, nearly 53%, said they had an unfavorable opinion of Harris, compared with 42% who said they had a favorable impression of her. Just 5% of respondents said they had no opinion. (More than 57% of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, compared with 41% who view him favorably.)

By contrast, Harris outperformed Biden among Democrats and black voters, who represent the party’s base. (Nearly 92% of Democrats surveyed said they supported Harris over Trump, compared with 86% for Biden. Nearly 91% of black respondents said they would choose Harris over Trump, compared with 82% for Biden.)

Among the black voters who say they will support the vice president is Vela McClam Mitchell of Smyrna.

“She has qualifications. She understands people. She understands the issues that we all face and I really think she’s done the job,” the 69-year-old said. “I’m sure she’ll be a great president.”

Voters’ enthusiasm

The AJC poll found the race between Trump and Biden to be closer than it was with Harris. In a head-to-head matchup against the current president, 48% of Georgia voters surveyed said they would support Trump, compared to 45% who would vote for Biden and 3% for another candidate. When pollsters included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Libertarian Chase Oliver, the race became statistically tied between Trump and Biden, with 45% of respondents choosing Trump and 42% choosing Biden.

Among Democrats, Harris won nearly 85 percent of the vote. But some in the party suggested they were still not enthusiastic about her candidacy.

Danise Stewart of Roswell would have voted for Biden this fall, but she wasn’t enthusiastic about doing so. But the 62-year-old white woman, who works in sales and marketing, said she was “not really happy” with the job Harris did as vice president.

“I think she should have been more present at the border and doing more,” Stewart said. “But I think she’s going to be reinvigorated now. And if she can get back to being a tough prosecutor, I really think that would do Democrats some good.”

The poll also highlighted a key factor that bolstered Trump in Georgia. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans say they are “very enthusiastic” about Trump’s chances. Hood, the UGA pollster, said that if Democrats can’t close that enthusiasm gap, “it could be enough to get Trump across the finish line in Georgia in this tight race.”

Among all voters surveyed, 50% said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and 48% said they had a favorable impression.

John Lamie, a disabled veteran from Quitman, voted for Trump twice and says he likely will do so again this fall. While “Trump may not be the best person in the world,” Lamie doesn’t think Democrats will have enough time to properly introduce a candidate to voters in time.

“I only have four months to get to know them? You have to know someone intimately and know what they stand for before you vote for them for president,” the Republican said.

With Biden out of the race, Trump becomes the oldest presidential candidate in the country’s history. But less than a third of Georgia voters said they were concerned about the 78-year-old’s age, with more than 90% of Republicans saying they were “not too concerned” or “not concerned at all.” At the same time, two-thirds of likely Georgia voters said they were concerned that Biden, 81, is “too old” to be president, including 45% of Democrats.

The poll shows that Georgians are divided on other prominent political figures. About a quarter of Georgia voters surveyed have an unfavorable impression of U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, while a fifth have a positive view of him. The rest, about 54 percent, don’t know enough to form an opinion.

Voters are split on Kennedy: 40 percent have a positive view of him, 40 percent have a negative view, and the rest are undecided. He does best among Republicans, independents, and young voters, while a plurality of Democrats and liberal voters view him unfavorably.

Trump wins more than a third of the vote among independent voters and has the support of 90% of Republicans, while Kennedy’s strongest bloc of support is among liberals, 14% of whom support him.

Historical candidate

Georgia voters have mixed feelings about the historic nature of a possible Harris nomination for Democratic leader: She would be the first Black woman and the first Asian American to be the party’s choice for president.

For Portia Kendrick, 54, that’s not enough to secure the candidate’s support. Although Kendrick is a black woman, she has said she won’t vote for Harris.

“The presidency is not just about race. It’s about who is the best person to lead our country,” the McDonough resident said. “I don’t think she’s up to the task.”

Jermaine Bunch, 43, said he would support Harris “all the way.”

“She did a great job as vice president,” Bunch said. “I know she would do a great job as president.”

But as a black man, he thinks he may be alone in thinking this way and fears the rest of the country may not be ready to accept his candidacy.

“We have come a long way since the civil rights era,” he said. “But since the election of President Obama, America has reopened a wound.”

“There are a lot of unresolved issues” about race and gender, he said. He worries that members of Congress are not giving him “the leeway that is necessary to lead this nation.”

“She would literally have to go out of her way to prove her worth to so many people,” said Bunch, who lives in DeKalb County.

Staff writer Maya T. Prabhu contributed to this article.