Dylan Lee’s return to form extends Atlanta Braves’ bullpen

There is no doubt that the 2024 Atlanta Braves have not lived up to the high expectations that many pundits and fans had placed on them before the start of the regular season. The team’s offensive production has been the biggest culprit, as the team’s pitching staff has excelled.

It’s not just the starting pitchers who have exceeded expectations midway through the 2024 campaign. The bullpen — an area management focused on last offseason — has also been exceptional. Among relievers with 10 or more appearances in the bullpen (that excludes Ray Kerr because of his two starts), only the injured Tyler Matzek has an ERA of 4.00 or higher through July 3, 2024.

In fact, only two members of the bullpen have an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00: Aaron Bummer and Pierce Johnson.

(Before you get upset in the comments about the use of ERA in the paragraphs above, the use of ERA is purely a reference point for the conversation, not the use of the statistic as anything else.)

From relief pitcher Raisel Iglesias to veteran Jesse Chavez, the bullpen has been a force. Seven pitchers have appeared in 26 or more games: Iglesias, Chavez, Bummer, Johnson, Joe Jimenez, AJ Minter and Dylan Lee.

Of those seven players, Lee, the left-hander, has probably worked the most in anonymity, working mostly in low- and medium-leverage situations. While he’s not the last man in the bullpen, the team’s ability to use him early in games has been underestimated based on his results.

Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

If you’re a visual person, check out his Baseball Savant page, where you can see that he’s in the 99th percentile in Chase % and 97th percentile in Whiff %. His slider and changeup have both been positive pitches for him this season, but it’s his slider that has been his go-to pitch since arriving in Atlanta late in the 2021 season. This season, he’s used it 51% of the time.

If you’ve been following the Braves closely, you probably remember Lee being called up to Atlanta in the final days of the 2021 regular season after a breakout year in Triple-A. Lee, who signed with Atlanta in April after being released by the Miami Marlins, made history by making his first major league start in the 2021 World Series.

Lee had a breakout 2022 regular season, posting a 1.1 fWAR while striking out 10.48 per nine innings with a 2.13 ERA/2.57 xERA and a 2.66 FIP in 46 games over 50.2 innings. Lee proved to be a capable second lefty option behind Minter and looked to be a solid option for the team in the coming seasons.

Lee took a step back last year when he dealt with shoulder issues in 2023 — he was placed on the 60-day injured list on the last day of June — and returned only briefly in September before going back on the injured list where he finished the season. He managed to pitch in 24 games and was still effective, but not at the level he was in 2022.

Shoulder issues can be worrisome for a pitcher, but Lee has alleviated concerns about his recovery this season by posting numbers that resemble his 2022 numbers. So far in 2024, he has pitched 26 games and 34.0 innings with a 9.26 strikeout rate, a 2.12 ERA and a 3.22 FIP. His 2.87 xERA sits in the 88th percentile, largely due to the effectiveness of his off-speed pitches. While his strikeout rate is down slightly, his ERA+ sits at 195, two ticks higher than his 193 ERA+ from 2022.

The left-hander was equally effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters, allowing a .284 wOBA in 13 innings against lefties (with 19 strikeouts) and a .273 wOBA in 21 innings against righties.

As mentioned earlier, Lee was mostly used in low- and medium-leverage situations, with 25 of his innings pitched in low-leverage situations and seven in medium-leverage situations. That’s not to say he entered the game in clean situations, as over half of his innings pitched came with men on base.

Lee getting called into work early in games has been a boon to the Braves’ bullpen. While there have been some shuffles at the bottom of the bullpen — and a few of the team’s relievers have been visiting on the injured list — Lee, who will soon be 30, being a steady option has helped provide length and consistency to an already excellent core of relievers.

As the Braves look to continue their dominance in the bullpen, Lee has quietly played a significant role in the unit’s overall success.