Atlanta Braves pick Pittsburgh Pirates for 05/26/2024

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Place: PNC Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Chris Sale – Braves
  • Martin Pérez – Pirates

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Win Odds

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the likelihood of an event happening based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Winning Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate made by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are scheduled to host the Atlanta Braves in an exciting National League game at PNC Park on May 26, 2024. The Pirates, with a record of 25-28, are having a subpar season so far, while the Braves boast an impressive 29-20 record, making them a force to be reckoned with.

On the mound, the Pirates are expected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. Although Perez holds a less-than-stellar position in the Power Rankings at 216 out of about 350 pitchers, he has started 10 games this year with a 1-3 win/loss record and a 4.80 ERA. However, his xERA of 5.37 suggests he got lucky this season and might not perform as well in the future.

The Braves, meanwhile, will send out their elite left-handed pitcher Chris Sale to start the game. Sale, ranked as the #5 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Advanced Power Rankings, has started 9 games this year with an impressive 7-1 win/loss record and an excellent 2.22 ERA.

In terms of offense, the Pirates rank 25th best in MLB this season, with a team batting average of 26th and a team home run ranking of 23rd. Their stolen base ranking is slightly better, at 12th. The Braves, meanwhile, have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 6th overall, with a solid team batting average (No. 1), home run ranking (No. 1 ) and a ranking of stolen bases (No. 7). .

Considering the teams’ respective bullpens, the Pirates rank 10th in MLB, while the Braves rank slightly higher at 6th. Both teams have strong relief pitchers to lean on as the game progresses.

When it comes to betting odds, the Pirates enter this game as big underdogs with a moneyline of +180, implying a 35% win probability. The Braves, as favorites, have a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%. The Pirates have a low team total of 3.52 points, while the Braves have a high team total of 4.98 points based on current odds.

With the Braves’ dominant offense and Chris Sale’s presence on the mound, they appear to have a significant advantage in this game. However, baseball is unpredictable and anything can happen any day. Will the Pirates defy all odds and spring a surprise, or will the Braves continue on their winning path? Only time will tell.

Atlanta Braves Quick Take:

Over his previous 3 games started, Chris Sale experienced a substantial increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2225 rpm over the entire season to 2275 rpm in the last few games.

• Spin rate is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate deteriorates will likely see his results deteriorate as well.

Travis d’Arnaud is expected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an improvement over his 78% strike rate in the bottom half of the batting order this year.

• The higher a player hits in the order, the more plate appearances he will have and the more opportunities he will have to reach the Over for each market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide an opportunity for additional value since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The current version of the Braves’ projected range is weaker than usual, as their .329, the primary projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA, is considerably lower than their projected overall rate of .340.

• Betting lines are often based on the seasonal quality of teams. However, if the current lineup is watered down, it could have value if the markets don’t take into account the lower quality of this attack.

Fast takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Martin Perez is expected to average 3.9 strikeouts in today’s game.

• THE BAT X is a very sophisticated projection system that takes into account a multitude of factors such as ballpark, weather, referee, etc.

Michael A. Taylor’s speed has declined this year. His Statcast sprint speed of 28.76 ft/sec last season now sits at 27.82 ft/sec.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat ground balls, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the major projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks 10th among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and takes points out of a game.

Gaming Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have reached Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.30 units / 23% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have reached the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+16.75 units / 33% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has reached Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 matches (+9.65 units / 44% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final score: Atlanta Braves 5.09 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 3.61

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