Bowen: Attack on Golan Heights leaves unspoken rules of border war in ruins

Taking action against Hezbollah in the largely depopulated areas of southern Lebanon might prevent an escalation. But killing Lebanese civilians in Beirut or destroying infrastructure such as bridges or power plants would not make this possible.

Hezbollah’s unconvincing claim that it did not carry out the attack in Majdal Shams is difficult to understand, however, why it would shoot Druze children at a football match.

Since the border war began on October 8, Hezbollah has largely adhered to the tacit rules of the conflict, seeking to kill soldiers rather than civilians.

It may have been aimed at the numerous Israeli early warning stations on the military positions in Mount Hermon.

Hezbollah is a far more dangerous enemy for Israel than Hamas. It is more powerful than the fragile Lebanese state and operates without consulting it.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is close to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah fighters are disciplined and well-trained, and Iran has equipped them with a massive arsenal of missiles capable of hitting Israel’s cities.

In its last major war in 2006, Hezbollah fought against Israel and crippled its forces. Its men have extensive combat experience, having spent years fighting in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The Israeli leadership knows all this. It also knows that, despite its enormous firepower, it has not yet been able to defeat Hamas in Gaza and that the reservists on which its army relies are under considerable pressure.

Israel is also under strong pressure from its allies, including the United States – without which it cannot sustain its war effort – not to take any action that would escalate the war into open combat.

The Americans and the French have tried to negotiate a solution to de-escalate the border war between Israel and Hezbollah. The lack of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip reduces their chances of success.

The border between Israel and Lebanon remains the place where the war in the Middle East is most likely to intensify.

Even if the crisis triggered by the killing of young football players and spectators in Majdal Shams passes without further riots, the “rules” of the border war are still tattered, imperfect and unstable, and there remains a risk that a single bloody incident could trigger another catastrophic war.