Don Paul’s forecast for the Buffalo area this week

Additionally, this negative impression was aided by the sleepiness that developed later Saturday night and throughout much of Sunday. The focal point of heavy local showers Sunday occurred in northern Erie, Niagara, Orleans and northern Genesee counties.

Even the huge 12-degree positive anomaly in Lake Buffalo Erie’s temperature, when it reached 64 degrees, shrank to 3 degrees, with the reading slipping to 62 degrees. Despite the cool start to the week, the average air temperature in Buffalo in June is still 3 degrees above average as of Sunday evening.

A trend reversal is on the horizon, although it will start slowly. Clouds will slowly erode by Tuesday afternoon, with partial sunshine bringing temperatures back to the still-cool upper 60s. A very light wind will help make the weather milder.

Wednesday will bring a broad ridge of high pressure eastward and direct a southwesterly flow toward Western New York.

This ridge will bring readings inland from Lake Erie to the mid 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies. In downtown and near the lakeshore, temperatures will reach the upper 60s.

We have a time-honoured expression in meteorology: “Never trust a warm front”, but all indications are that we will have a dry and warm frontal passage by Thursday morning, giving way to a partly sunny day with a warmer temperature , more summery.

Note the intense and unusually early warming accumulating from western Kansas into the High Plains, desert southwest, and interior Southern California.

Our next chance for rain comes with the approach of a rather weak cold front Thursday evening, with a few scattered showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder, with fewer lingering showers and some dry weather Friday.

We look in great shape for next weekend. A large dome of high pressure will bring tons of sunshine both days. On the cooler side of the maximum, Saturday temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s. By Sunday, we will be on the warmer side of the high with a southerly flow, bringing temperatures back to summer levels.

Obviously there will be no risk of thunderstorms for boaters and these early signs point to fairly light winds from the northwest on Saturday and from the south or southwest on Sunday, keeping wave heights likely below 2 feet on the two lakes.

By next Monday, the big ridge will increase what could be the hottest temperatures we’ve seen this year, bringing us into the upper 80s, with a bit more humidity to make it feel like the midsummer.

As for rainfall potential this week, scattered showers Thursday evening through Friday will produce manageable amounts, preceded by some drying Monday through Thursday. With patchy coverage, new local precipitation is expected to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches during this period.

The biggest hot spot will be central and southern Florida, where moderate to severe drought conditions prevail. Even with the drought, predicted tropical rain amounts will be excessive, especially near Tampa and Fort Myers, where amounts could total 10 to 15 inches by next weekend, causing flooding.

In extended range sets at altitude, our warm-up shows clear signs of holding up, with real potential for summer heat after next weekend into the Monday-Friday period. A strengthening ridge, similar to a thermal dome, will form to the south and southwest.

The Climate Prediction Center agrees with this thinking, with high confidence in the likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures in the six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day outlooks.

For some, this pattern can evolve into “too much of a good thing.”

Tornado Alley, a phrase not always popular with meteorologists and climatologists, once had a focal point centered on the central and southern Plains, with the peak season slowly migrating north in spring. National Weather Service/Storm Prediction Center data from 1951 to 1985 describe the greater prevalence of EF-1 or stronger tornadoes, concentrating in what were considered more climatologically favored locations, published in Weather Underground. com.

(Interesting sidebar: At the very end of this period, the worst tornado outbreak on record in and near our region occurred on May 31, 1985.)

But in the decades since, there has been a statistically significant eastward shift for the most common tornadoes.

Although this study had only just been published, it had become clear before its publication that a change was underway over the past two decades, for reasons that are still unclear. A serious consequence is that the eastward movement brings more heat and humidity at night from the steady-state Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf does not cool like the land while people sleep, and the added heat and humidity leads to more tornadoes when people are not susceptible to dangerous weather conditions. This change puts millions more people from southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky to the Gulf Coast at increased risk of tornadoes, some particularly violent and long-lasting. trajectory, during hours when it becomes more difficult to warn the public.

Despite the brutal tornado season in the Central Plains this spring, the average change in average tornado frequency is apparent over the past several decades.

There has also been an increase in what were once considered “off-season” tornadoes, with more tornadoes during the colder months as well as more outbreaks in mid and late summer.

With this shift, more people living in more densely populated areas than in much of the plains are at risk, with urban sprawl and loosely anchored mobile housing units contributing to the risk. Frankly speaking, there are more populated targets that tornadoes can strike in this region. In 2020, cities like Birmingham, Alabama, and Nashville, Tennessee, were hit hard. On April 27, 2011, 348 people lost their lives due to a super outbreak targeting the Gulf States, particularly Alabama. Adding to the risk, even in broad daylight, tornadoes in the Gulf States have more available moisture, are shrouded in rain, and much harder for the public to see. This moisture disparity is why the most spectacular tornado images are still recorded in the plains, with loose dirt sucked into the vortices.

There is still no real consensus on the reasons for this change. One hypothesis, still under study, links warming of Gulf waters due to climate change to increased heat and humidity input into these states. Additionally, mid- and upper-level winds produce faster storm movement and longer tracks for tornadoes in the South and Southeast. In coming years, if there is no further westward shift as the Gulf continues to expand well above climatological sea surface temperature norms, the climate link will be more firmly established. For now, the causal factors remain unclear.

In the meantime, most tornado researchers have abandoned the term Tornado Alley altogether. In Western New York, we are not safe from tornadoes, but we can take comfort in knowing that we are not currently in an area with increased activity.