Large hail in Texas, again until Monday

It was an eventful Mother’s Day across the state of Texas, where scenes like the one below in Temple, Texas were witnessed. The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service reported hail in Temple measuring up to 2 inches in diameter.

Some of our largest hail reports from Sunday in Texas and Louisiana were over 2.5 inches in diameter.

Overnight

The Storm Prediction Center maintained a LIGHT (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather in parts of East Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, while the MARGINAL (level 1 of 5) extends from Kansas to Mississippi.

This comes with a tornado threat through Monday morning, focused on southeast Texas and west-central Louisiana.

Overnight, storms will continue to move eastward across the South, with one or two isolated supercells still possible. The low-level jet will develop overnight and continue to push transient multicells and supercells capable of delivering strong winds and hail eastward overnight.

Monday

On Monday, the Storm Prediction Center issued a LIGHT (Level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas.

Given the amount of moisture in this air mass once storms develop, there is initially a threat of large to very large hail, which is why the SPC has issued a “hatched” or “significant” threat. large hail for cities such as San Antonio and Shreveport. . As storms organize into multicellular clusters, the threat will evolve into a significant wind threat, storms will be capable of producing gusts of up to 75 mph over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida.

Storms are expected to begin during the day before moving east along the front overnight into Louisiana. Initial development of the storms will favor the threat of large hail before transitioning into squall lines as they move east and transition into a damaging wind threat. Given the low shear, the tornado threat is less, but not zero, in this scenario.

These additional storms ravage an already saturated landscape. The blue shaded areas on the map below highlight locations that received 2-3 times the normal amount of precipitation over the past 30 days! There aren’t many places for extra precipitation to run off, other than swollen streams.

2 to 4 inches of precipitation will be possible in parts of Texas and Louisiana through Tuesday, before the system moves toward the Gulf Coast states. For more information on the threat of flooding, see this related article: Moderate flood threat (level 3/4) until Monday.