Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Picks for 05/07/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Game Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Place: Truist Park
• Starting pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola – Phillies
  • Max Fried – The Braves

Betting odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Winning Odds

The implied win percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for punters to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected Win Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will face the Philadelphia Phillies on July 5, 2024, at Truist Park in a major National League East game. The Phillies, with an outstanding 57-30 record, are having a great season, while the Braves are also showing good results at 47-38.

Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked No. 6 in THE BAT X’s rankings, will take the mound for the Braves. Fried has been exceptional this season with a 7-3 win-loss record and a 2.91 ERA. While some underlying stats like his 3.43 ERA suggest a possible regression, Fried’s current form gives the Braves confidence. Fried is known for his ground-pounding prowess, which will be crucial against the powerful Phillies lineup, which ranks No. 5 in the league with 103 home runs this season.

On the counterattack for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, a stellar right-handed pitcher ranked 30th by THE BAT X. Nola is 9-4 with a solid 3.43 ERA. While his projections indicate he could allow 2.9 ERA today, Nola’s overall performance and ability to strike out batters at a rate of 6.3 per game are key assets for Philadelphia.

Offensively, the Phillies have the edge with a lineup ranked fourth in the league, with impressive stats like a .300 batting average (third in MLB) and fourth in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Braves, despite their average offense, have a powerhouse in Austin Riley, who is on a hot streak with a .286 batting average and a 1.000 OPS over the past week.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Phillies ranked 4th and the Braves 8th. Given Atlanta’s home-field advantage and an implied win probability of 56%, this should be a closely contested game. Expect a low-scoring battle with a 7.5-run total, highlighting the expected pitching duel between Fried and Nola.

Philadelphia Phillies Quick Look:

Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph this year ranks in the 18th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nick Castellanos is slotted into the No. 4 spot for this game, which would be an improvement over his 53% success rate in the bottom half of the lineup this year.

• The higher up the order a player bats, the more appearances he will have at bat and the more opportunities he will have to hit the Over for each market. A player batting higher up the order than usual can provide an opportunity for additional value since the market may be based on him batting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Philadelphia Phillies’ projected lineup for today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .307, which is significantly worse than their true talent wOBA of .325 this year.

• Betting odds are often based on the seasonal quality of the team. However, if today’s lineup is diluted, it could be interesting if the markets don’t factor in the lower quality of this attack.

Atlanta Braves Quick Look:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball batters, Max Fried and his underlying FB% of 52.1% (according to leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this outing against 2 opposing FB batters.

• It mostly has to do with how the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the trajectory of the pitch, and it can create improved performance across all categories and hidden value that few people consider.

This season, Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on fly balls, now averaging 98.8 mph compared to last year’s 96.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a good indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen is ranked 8th best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen insidiously creates a more difficult matchup for the opposing offense and takes runs out of a game.

Gaming Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the under total in 51 of their last 80 games (+22.50 units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have reached the first five innings run line (F5) in 50 of their last 75 games (+19.80 units / 20% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit under in 12 of his last 18 games (+11.00 units / 61% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.82 vs. Atlanta Braves 4.61

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