The Criticality of June for the Houston Astros (And Some Other Thoughts)

Under the Astros’ current dominance, June is typically the month where Houston makes his way onto the field, but with an awareness of what he might need in the trade market. Even last season when Houston seemed stuck at a standstill before surging and when they looked at the Rangers it wasn’t a question of whether Houston would reach the playoffs, but whether they would be division winners. This constant has been disrupted this season. The team will finish the month under .500, looking down at Seattle and Texas/Arlington in the standings.

Two straight months below .500 haven’t been seen in a full season in Houston since 2014. While many don’t really see 2024 ending without Houston in the playoffs, it’s far from a certainty. It may be hyperbole, but June 2024 could be one of the most important months in Astros history. A team that fights for championships here and now is also aware of the demands of time. With stalwarts like Verlander, Bregman and Pressly slated for free agency at the end of this year (or in position for it to happen), there’s the feeling of one last journey. What should Houston do? Some thoughts.

Houston should be no worse than 1-2 games under .500 by July 1st. Given that Houston had nine games in May below .500, it was going to be a tall order to get back above .500 for June. Houston got as close as five under, but couldn’t improve beyond that. Worst-case scenario (which isn’t that unlikely), Houston begins June with nine games in hand. Although there is still plenty of season left, time is not always on the Astros’ side. As of right now, Houston has no reason to change the course of the team this season or make any moves that could mean some sort of rebuild. However, there will come a time when the deficit may become a little too large to fill. Nine pennies in May or even early June, especially in a weak division (more on that later), does not sound the death knell. Still, if a team is significantly below .500 in July, brutal questions arise. For Houston, that means rethinking the 2024 goals and their implications for 2025 and beyond. With a weak farm system and a higher payroll than Crane would like, but with a talented team still on the roster, a soft rebuild is an option for a reset for 2025 and a reload for another contention window.

June schedule offers Houston chance to save season: While it’s impossible to expect any team, even this one, to go undefeated for a month, June appears to offer Houston the chance to consolidate some of its progress from May. After a 12-24 start, playing against arguably the toughest schedule in MLB, Houston found success, mostly against weaker opponents like Oakland and Colorado, but they did beat division leaders Cleveland and Milwaukee. In June, they will meet Minnesota (2) at home; St. Louis (3); Detroit (3), Baltimore (3); Colorado (2) and road slants with the Angels (3); San Francisco (3); Chicago White Sox (3); and the New York Mets (3). Other than Baltimore, none of these teams are what you would call heavyweights. While the Astros aren’t the winning constant of the past, if they want to get back over .500, this is a schedule they can and should feast against. Regardless of what Seattle and/or Texas/Arlington do, if Houston can’t get above .500, the rest doesn’t matter.

About José Abreu: Perhaps the most contentious question for the Astros will be what to do about Abreu. The former AL MVP is the favorite for LVP in all of MLB. His mission return resulted in a 1-7, 1 RBI start…pushing his average to a healthy .111. Yet he’s not even halfway through a 3-year/$58 million contract. With no team in baseball needing to hit a salary floor, it’s unlikely Houston could trade Abreu without including some high-caliber prospects (which they don’t currently have). When do the Astros cut their losses? Brown says the franchise doesn’t have infinite patience. Removing Abreu from the payroll won’t remove the tax obligations, and signing Abreu will arguably go down as Crane’s worst decision as an owner (in the free agent realm). However, the Astros are no longer good enough to accommodate a black hole like Abreu. You don’t mistake Singleton for an All-Star, but compared to Abreu, he’s the second coming of Bagwell (Bags on the court, not the current executive incarnation). Abreu isn’t the only reason the team is 10-22 in games this year, but the impact of his negative WAR really doesn’t help.

The AL West’s deceptive weakness: Seattle, Texas/Arlington, Houston claiming 1-3 spots in the AL West: This isn’t a shock. Seeing as the best team is a) only 4 above .500 and b) the only one above .500 at this point in the season: yuugggeee shocker. Yet all of the top 3 teams have serious flaws, whether it’s significant injury issues (Houston, Arlington), offensive issues (Houston, Seattle), pitching issues (Houston, Arlington), or simply period problems (Houston). However, the Rangers’ bats won’t all stay on the ground forever and they should get some of their injured pitchers back soon. Seattle’s offense will either start to pick up pace or get some much-needed reinforcements at the trade deadline. Yet unlike some other weaker divisions of the past, where they made the playoffs because someone had to, if any of these three made the playoffs, they would be very, very dangerous. Seattle has some of the best pitching in the game, always a playoff nightmare. Arlington is a defending champion, with many of the same cast and crew, that you can never ignore. Houston in the playoffs is a team that no one would really want to see. However, to be part of that conversation, Houston needs to get above .500 pretty quickly, no matter what happens with the rest of the weak division.

Right now, the Astros are stuck in a strange limbo. If a team matches their record, the Astros are a no-win team, stuck in a weak division. Still, the talent and experience of this team, as well as the time remaining in the season, suggest that Houston’s ambitions for 2024 are far from dead. At the risk of sounding like a record broken by a desperate Astros fan, the team needs to get going quickly. Otherwise, all feelings of sadness move from a current mood to a complete and unambiguous reality.