First Alert Weather in detail: Tropical storm approaching

ROCHESTER, NY — Summer is in full swing across our region, the country and the entire Northern Hemisphere, and with it comes an increasing likelihood of tropical systems forming.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. There has been one storm so far this season, named Alberto. Climatologically, August and September are the most active months of the tropical season, but the tropics are starting to get hotter, as the National Hurricane Center has two study areas in mind.

Invest 94L is located southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and has a 30 percent chance of developing in the next seven days, while Invest 95L is located over the open waters of the tropical Atlantic and has a 70 percent chance of developing in the next seven days. Invest 94L is closer to land, so it is running out of time to develop. Forecast tracks have it either moving inland over Honduras or brushing the coast and drifting toward Belize and Guatemala.

There is no major cause for concern for the continental United States, and while it may not have a name, very heavy tropical rains are expected in parts of Central America, with possible flooding and mudslides.

On the other hand, Invest 95L has much more time to develop, posing a threat to the Caribbean and keeping the southeastern United States on alert. As of Thursday, Invest 95L has a 70 percent chance of developing in the next week. Models expect Invest 97L to be fairly weak for the next five days and move toward the Lesser Antilles. After that, models increase the intensity of Invest 95L as the environment becomes a little more favorable for stronger development and it continues to linger over very warm waters.

Where Invest 95L currently stands, water temperatures are around 80 degrees, which allows for tropical development, but the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have much warmer waters. Water temperatures in the Caribbean are around 85 degrees, while in the Gulf of Mexico they are already just under 90 degrees. These water temperatures are much more conducive to tropical development.

It will be a few days before Invest 95L drifts into warmer waters, but it will be interesting to follow its course until July 4. The next two names are Beryl and Chris.