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Astros vs Twins Game Predictions and Betting Tips on July 5, 2024

The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins will open a three-game series in Minnesota on Friday night. The Astros started the season slowly but have surged ahead in the AL West race, now in second place behind the Seattle Mariners. The Twins, the defending AL Central champions, have trailed the division-leading Guardians for first place in the division for much of the season. Friday’s pitching matchup will feature veteran right-hander Justin Verlander (3-2, 3.95 ERA) of the Astros against Twins right-hander Pablo Lopez (8-6, 4.88 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EST.

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Verlander returns to the field for Astros

The Houston Astros have appeared in the American League Championship Series for the past seven seasons, an AL record and trailing only the Atlanta Braves (1991-99) for the Major League record. The Astros have been hampered by major injuries to their starting rotation this season and it looked like their streak was in serious jeopardy. The Astros have battled back, however, and are now back in the thick of the American League playoffs heading into the second half of the season. The Astros arrive in Minnesota after a four-game series in Toronto against the Blue Jays. The two teams split the first two games of the series, with the Astros winning the opener and the Blue Jays taking a 7-6 victory Tuesday night. The Astros won Game 3 on another big night from Yander Alvarez, including a home run. In the final game of the series, starter Framber Valdez survived a tough first inning and scattered nine hits to earn the win in a 5-3 Astros victory. Jeremy Pena homered for the Astros in the win.

The Astros welcome back Justin Verlander on Friday night after a stint on the injured list with a neck injury. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 this season with a 3.95 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including five quality starts. Verlander has allowed 52 hits in 57 innings pitched while drawing 17 walks and striking out 51 batters. He has allowed 11 home runs this season in 10 starts. In his last start before being placed on the injured list, Verlander pitched five innings and allowed seven hits and four runs while striking out just three batters. The Astros have won just two of his last five starts this season.

Major injuries: RF Kyle Tucker, SP Luis Garcia, C Victor Caratini, SP Jake Bloss, RP Oliver Ortega, RP Kendell Graveman and SP Lance McCullers Jr. are out.

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Lopez wants to continue growing the twins

The Minnesota Twins have moved up to second place in the American League Central standings and are also in second place in the American League Wild Card standings heading into this series. The Twins’ everyday lineup is improving and the results have put the Twins back in contention for another division crown. They won two of three games against the Mariners in Seattle over the weekend and followed that up with their third straight win over the Tigers at home on Tuesday night. The Twins’ winning streak ended Wednesday night in a 9-2 loss to the Tigers. In the series finale, center Ryan Jeffers went 3-for-4 with a home run and four RBIs as the Twins crushed the Tigers 12-3 in a rain-shortened 7-inning victory.

The Twins will start veteran right-hander Pablo Lopez in the series opener Friday night. The hard-throwing right-hander has had an inconsistent season with the Twins, going 8-6 in 17 starts, including eight quality starts. His ERA is 4.88 and his WHIP is 1.15 while allowing 88 hits in 94 innings pitched. Lopez has only walked 20 and has an impressive 110 strikeouts while allowing 17 home runs. In his last start, Lopez pitched six innings and allowed four hits and just one run while striking out nine in a 5-1 victory over the Mariners. The Twins have won four of his last five starts this season.

Major injuries: SP Chris Paddack, RP Brock Stewart, RP Justin Topa and RP Zack Weiss are out.

Thursday’s Best Plays

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The Astros will likely welcome Verlander back in the series opener, with the veteran eligible to return from the injured list and the Astros in dire need of starting pitchers. That said, Verlander hasn’t been the dominant pitcher he’s been for much of his career so far, as he’s struggled with injuries this season. The Astros have won just two of his last five starts, and he’s working off the lowest strikeout rate of his career. The Twins’ Lopez has dominant strikeout numbers, but hasn’t been as consistent as he was last year. That said, the Twins have won four of his last five starts, and he’s coming off a solid outing against the Mariners in which he allowed just one run in six innings of work with nine strikeouts. Verlander will likely be somewhat limited in his first game back from the injured list, making Lopez the more reliable of the two at this point.

Take the Twins with the money line.

Prediction: Twins ML

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Both of these teams are hitting the ball well heading into this series, especially the Twins. The return of 3B Richie Lewis and OF/DH Byron Buxton has bolstered a Twins lineup that lacked power early in the season. As a result, the Twins have gone over the total in four of the last five games. The Astros’ lineup has also been productive, despite missing RF Kyle Tucker due to injury. Yander Alvarez has started to heat up at the plate, and Houston has scored five or more runs in four of the five games.

Take over.

Prediction: Over 8

Author Profile

Mark Ruelle, “Mark Ruelle”

Mark has been a sports enthusiast since he was a kid. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has been using it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Mark is now part of our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in Marketing, Broadcasting and English and uses these vast array of strengths to break down and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of stats to consider and a strong opinion on each matchup he covers. Please follow him daily for up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.