Hurricane Beryl’s path remains uncertain as it heads toward Mexico and Texas

HOUSTON — As Hurricane Beryl approached the coast of Jamaica as a major Category 4 storm, meteorologists grappled with uncertainty about its intensity and track.

The storm is expected to move toward northeastern Mexico or far southern Texas, but where it will go is uncertain. The uncertainty comes from changes in the storm’s steering currents, which will weaken after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, according to Dan Reilly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Houston.

KHOU 11 Meteorologist Pat Cavlin spoke with Reilly to learn more about where Beryl could be headed, how it could affect Houston if it pushes into the Gulf and the importance of staying vigilant, even over the holiday weekend.

“After you cross the Yucatan, the steering currents get weaker. And in a situation like that, subtle features can cause the cyclone to drift north or west,” Reilly said. “So I think the models aren’t handling some of those subtle features very well or at least treating them differently.”

While Beryl’s uncertain trajectory is why we need to remain vigilant, we hope that data from Hurricane Hunters and the NWS over the next few days will help the models refine a more accurate forecast.

Currently, two main scenarios are being considered: a storm that weakens and moves further south toward Mexico or a stronger storm that moves slightly further north with the potential to affect southern Texas.

“I would say a weakening storm that tracks a little bit more south would be a good trend for us, with a longer track through the Yucatan,” Reilly said. “You know, that could help the solution go further south. That would then take it right into Mexico. If we see the storm maintain its strength, and maybe even track a little bit more north in the short term, you know, that could have implications in the future for maybe a more northerly track, even into South Texas. You know, you know, we’re just going to have to keep an eye on it and, you know, I expect that in the next day or so, the models will become more clustered. But for now, we just have to continue to monitor.”

Reilly and Cavlin advised checking the weather forecast every day as we monitor Beryl. Check once when you wake up and again before you go to bed. This is a good time to review evacuation plans if you live on the coast and emergency/hurricane plans if you live further inland.