Evaluating guard Reed Sheppard’s fit for the Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets struck lottery gold earlier this month, moving from a projected ninth overall selection to third place with a pick owed to them by the Brooklyn Nets following the blockbuster trade of 2021 that sent James Harden to Brooklyn. Although scouts are projecting this to be a very weak draft due to the lack of elite prospects at the top, that doesn’t mean the Rockets can’t come away with a future contributor to their rotation if they choose third place.

One of the most intriguing prospects in the draft, and this year’s analytics darling due to his statistical profile, is Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard. According to reports, some NBA teams have Sheppard ranked first on their draft board. Sheppard is a 6’3 guard who shot 52.1% from long range on 4.4 attempts per game last season, averaging 12.5 points, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game . He shot 55.5% on two-pointers. Although Sheppard’s shooting efficiency has scouts drooling, he has less than ideal size and athleticism, and struggles to create off the dribble, especially against better competition. These latter concerns limit Sheppard’s ceiling somewhat.

Sheppard could be an available option for the Rockets with the third pick. The question for Houston with this project concerns the team building philosophy. After winning 41 games last season in hopes of qualifying for the play-in tournament, would they look to select the best “fit” in this year’s draft or would they look to add the best talent available to their “Core 6” of prospects? With Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet as the starting backcourt, and both likely to return next season, it is almost certain that Sheppard would come off the bench. He would be competing for minutes with second-year guards Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, who can also play either wing position. Veteran guard Aaron Holiday also played an important role for the team off the bench, often closing out games in place of Green when the latter was struggling.

A top-10 defense a year ago, the Rockets have struggled offensively, largely due to their mediocre shooting team. The Rockets were 20th in offensive rating last season and only 23rd in three-point shooting. A shooter like Sheppard could stretch defenses by charging up budding star center Alperen Sengun, also opening up driving lanes for Green, allowing the two fourth-year players to operate more easily in the paint. If paired with the 6’7, long-armed Thompson in the backcourt, one can imagine Thompson shouldering the playmaking load and defensive load (guarding the other team’s shooter) as a solid complement to Sheppard .

How things will go on draft night is anyone’s guess. The Rockets are just happy to have a seat at the table forward.