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Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction and Picks for July 1, 2024

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The Houston Astros will cross the border to face the Toronto Blue Jays in the Blue Jays’ annual Canada Day game. The Jays will wear their Canada Day red uniforms as they take on the Astros in the first of a three-game series. Monday afternoon’s pitching matchup will feature Astros right-hander Hunter Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA) against Blue Jays right-hander Yariel Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94). First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. EST.

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Astros regain their footing

The Houston Astros appeared to be back on track with a winning streak that pushed them back into second place in the AL West and over .500 on the season. Things changed quickly this weekend in their series against the Mets, however. The Astros dropped the opener 7-2, then rebounded for a 9-6 win Saturday against the red-hot Mets. In Sunday afternoon’s finale in Queens, the Astros put together a five-run series finale in the top of the 11th inning to take a 10-5 victory and clinch the series. Jon Singleton had three hits in the win, including a home run.

The Astros will look to regroup as they head north to face the Blue Jays on Monday afternoon. The Astros will send right-hander Hunter Brown to the hill in the series opener. Brown is 5-5 this season in 16 games, including eight quality starts. He has a 4.37 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while allowing 78 hits in 80.1 innings this season. Brown has walked 32 and struck out 89 batters so far and allowed 12 home runs. In his last start, Brown went six innings in a 5-2 win over the Rockies, allowing two scoreless hits while striking out seven batters.

Major injuries: SP Jake Bloss, SP Justin Verlander, RP Kendell Graveman, SP Lance McCullers Jr. and C Victor Caratini are out.

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The Blue Jays aren’t done yet?

The Blue Jays came into Boston last week on a seven-game losing streak, including a sweep of the BoSox in Toronto. They split the first two games of this series before the finale was rained out Wednesday. Back home, the Blue Jays won two of the first three games against the first-place Yankees. In Sunday’s finale against the Bombers, the Blue Jays lost 8-1 as starter Kevin Gausman was hit hard once again. Gausman pitched just 4.1 innings, allowing seven hits and seven runs and saw his ERA climb to 4.75 this season.

The Blue Jays will start young right-hander Yariel Rodriguez on Canada Day against the Astros. Rodriguez has made five starts this season with an 0-2 record and has yet to have a quality start this season. He has a 5.94 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his five starts. Rodriguez has allowed 21 hits in 16.2 innings pitched, including two home runs. He has walked 11 and struck out 17. In his last outing, Rodriguez lasted just 1.1 innings while allowing two hits, three walks and allowing five runs in a 7-1 loss to the Guardians in Cleveland.

Main injuries: RP Jordan Romano, SP Ricky Tiedemann, RP Yimi Garcia and SP Alek Manoah are out.

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Best bets for Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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The Astros’ offense is in great shape and they should have a good chance to put up some numbers Monday. Rodriguez has an ERA of nearly six this season and a WHIP of nearly 2.00. He struggled to control his game in his last outing, allowing three walks and not getting out of the second inning. Rodriguez has already walked 11 times this season in his limited appearances and that ensures the struggling Blue Jays bullpen will have to work in overtime in this game. The Astros’ Brown is coming off his best start of the season, allowing just two hits and no runs against the Rockies. The Astros have also won four of Brown’s last five starts. That trend will continue Monday afternoon.

Take the Astros with the money line.

Prediction: Astros ML

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Although neither pitcher has been dominant this season, both have gone under frequently in their last five starts. The Astros have gone under in each of Brown’s last five starts. The Blue Jays have lost under in four of Rodriguez’s last five starts. I like the Astros to win this game comfortably, but I don’t expect it to be an extremely high-scoring game on Monday afternoon.

Take the bottom.

Prediction: under

Author Profile

Mark Ruelle, “Mark Ruelle”

Mark has been a sports enthusiast since he was a child. He is also a keen follower of sports analytics and has been using it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. We now have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in Marketing, Broadcasting and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyse matches. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of stats to consider and a strong opinion on each match he covers. Please follow him daily for up-to-date analysis of all the important matches.

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