The Houston Texans have the most overrated offense heading into 2024

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

After their fairytale run in 2023, the Houston Texans have become the golden child of the NFL. Now I love watching the Texans, but at this point they have become overrated. The excitement over projecting the Texans’ highest possible score has overshadowed reality and what is most likely to happen. Below I’ll dive into two of the key players that made this offense overrated by the NFL community, CJ Stroud and Stefon Diggs.

CJ Stroud

Let me start by saying that CJ Stroud had arguably one of the best rookie seasons of all time. When looking at things from a long-term perspective, I think Stroud will be great, but considering him a top-five quarterback next year is too reactionary. I was surprised to learn that some people thought he was a top-five quarterback in his rookie season, which is simply not true. Stats aren’t everything, but Stroud finished 8th in passing yards and 14th in passing touchdowns. These are two main categories that are generally linked to actual success.

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Stroud could very well be good enough to overcome the sophomore slump, but that’s just another piece of information that no one is taking into account. According to a Harvard Sports Analysis study, “We can see from the green line that there is indeed a sophomore slump. He then goes on to say that “From year one to year two, we see a 12.1% drop in QBR and this was found to be statistically significant by running a paired t-test that compares each player’s performance over the course of his first and second year. .

Finally, it’s easy to call someone a “top five quarterback” until you put it in context. Of course, you’d much rather Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson than Stroud. Joe Burrow has proven himself at a higher level when healthy and Matthew Stafford is still going strong. That’s already five there, and we haven’t mentioned Jalen Hurts, who struggled last year but looked extremely promising after his 2022 season.

Steve Diggs

After a rough end to Steffon Diggs’ 2023 season, the NFL community was all-in on him. Now, despite being in a worse situation than the Buffalo Bills, he suddenly started getting a ton of hype? This seems like just another overreaction to a major offseason signing.

It’s important to note that Diggs’ struggles were partly due to factors such as the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Despite this, Diggs had a 107-1 183-8 season, so I’m not saying he’s a bad player. However, from Weeks 10-18, he only had 4.63 receptions, 43.63 receiving yards, and 0.13 touchdowns per game. Diggs will be 31 this season, facing a slight reduction in passing volume, a quarterback downgrade and the most targeted competition of his career. Despite this, many expect him to improve and bounce back.

Nico Collins is a much better option than Diggs, even though he only has one year of high production. Still, many people say Diggs will be the Texans WR1 or close to it. Although Collins is not an elite prospect, he has improved each year and posted solid numbers in his first two years.

Let’s not forget how bad Houston’s quarterback situation was before Stroud arrived. I was surprised to see Collins with a 17.8% target share as a rookie and a 24.3% target share in his second year. I’d much rather bet on the young receiver continuing to improve, and Diggs will find himself playing a role rather than being the alpha.