The Buffalo Bills knew they couldn’t make a big trade in the 2024 NFL Draft

A common narrative among the Bills Mafia and draft experts heading into the 2024 NFL Draft was that the Buffalo Bills needed to make a big move and move up in the draft to acquire one of the top receivers to pair with Josh Allen. That thought became even stronger after general manager Brandon Beane traded All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round pick in early April.

This was never planned, however. An interaction between Beane and New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen was documented in the season premiere of the HBO television series. Off-season setbacks with the New York Giants It was revealed that Buffalo knew that a trade in the top 10, or more precisely in the top six, was not possible.

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Beane is seen chatting at the Senior Bowl with Schoen and Panthers general manager Dan Morgan, both of whom worked under Beane in Buffalo. In the clip, Schoen asks Morgan and Beane if they want to make a trade for the No. 6 pick. Schoen asks Beane, “Can’t you afford a top-10 pick?” To which he replies, “I can’t afford that pick.” The point of the clip is to show the moment Schoen learned of the availability of star pass rusher Brian Burns, but for Bills fans, admitting Buffalo couldn’t make such a move is the big news.

If Beane wanted to move up to sixth, he likely would have targeted LSU’s Malik Nabers, who the Giants ultimately selected, or Washington’s Rome Odunze, who was selected ninth by the Chicago Bears. This is all fun, but what would that trade have looked like? Based on Jimmy Johnson’s classic valuation model for draft pick trades, Buffalo would have had to move 28 + 60 + a future first-round pick to get the Giants’ attention. According to Jimmy Johnson’s model, that would mean Buffalo would have given up about 1,630 points for the Giants’ 1,600 points, but we factored in the fact that future picks are discounted and we knew WR was a premium position in the 2024 draft.

Instead, the Bills made two trades with the Chiefs to move up from No. 28 to No. 32, and then with the Panthers to move up from No. 32 to No. 33, where they took wide receiver Keon Coleman from Florida State. In making those trades, the Bills added picks No. 95 and No. 141 while getting rid of other late-round selections.

Ultimately, as much as fans wanted to see Beane make a huge pass for a wide receiver, Buffalo’s front office boss knew early in February that wouldn’t be possible.

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