How much should the Sabers expect to pay Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen may not have to wait long to sign another contract with the Buffalo Sabres.

A source familiar with the matter confirmed to the Buffalo News that the club and Luukkonen’s agent, Markus Lehto of Wasserman Media Group, have begun the process of negotiating a new contract for the 25-year-old goalkeeper.

Luukkonen will receive a significant raise as a restricted free agent from the $867,500 he counted against the Sabers’ salary cap over the past two seasons. The 2017 second-round pick has proven this season to be a reliable starting goaltender in the NHL with career highs in games played (54), wins (27), save percentage (.910). ), goals allowed average (2.57) and shutouts. (five).

Luukkonen’s performance was the best by a Sabers goaltender since 2011-12, when Miller had 31 wins in 61 appearances with six shutouts and a 2.54 goals-against average.

Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy was the only NHL goaltender to appear in more games than Luukkonen (36) after December 31. Among goaltenders to appear in at least 25 games during that span, Luukkonen ranked third in save percentage (.919), second in goals-against average (2.31), and tied for first rank with four shutouts.

Only five goalies in the NHL recorded more goals saved than expected, an Evolving-Hockey metric that measures performance based on the quality of scoring chances, this season than Luukkonen: Connor Hellebuyck, Jordan Binnington , Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Jeremy Swayman.

This breakthrough was confirmed by Sabers general manager Kevyn Adams, who boldly declared at the end of last season that the goaltenders were finally an organizational force because of the growth demonstrated by their two top prospects: Luukkonen and Devon Levi. They are expected to work in tandem in Buffalo next season and both should see plenty of action during an 82-game schedule that will be condensed due to the NHL Four Nations Tournament.

“He wanted to score, he had an opportunity and he ran with it,” Adams said of Luukkonen. “And it was great to see. And I loved the confidence that he gave to our team. I think in the majority of almost every game that he played this year, he gave us a chance to win. And that’s really at the end of the day, what you want from your goalie.

But how much will Luukkonen’s breakthrough cost the Sabers at the negotiating table? Several recent contracts signed by NHL goaltenders reveal what fans can expect once a deal is announced.

A starting point could be the three-year contract the Minnesota Wild gave to Filip Gustavsson last July. Gustavsson was also 25, but had played 34 fewer NHL games than Luukkonen when the Wild gave him a contract that counts $3.75 million against the salary cap each season.

Gustavsson led the Wild to the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 37 wins, a remarkable .931 save percentage, a 2.10 goals-against average and three shutouts. However, he had not played 40 games in a season and, like Luukkonen, he struggled somewhat when he first entered the league.

Luukkonen’s agent will be aiming for a higher average annual value, however, as the salary cap will increase next season and Luukkonen achieved these impressive statistics by appearing in over 50 games. He would likely earn more than $3.75 million if he opts for salary arbitration, which he has the option to do if the two sides don’t reach a contract by July 5.

Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators is another comparable to consider. He was a restricted free agent and was 25 years old in the summer of 2021 when he signed a four-year, $20 million contract to avoid salary arbitration. Saros had 155 NHL regular season games, 17 playoff appearances and finished sixth in Vezina Trophy voting just months before putting pen to paper on a contract that represents one of the best bargains for a goaltender purpose of the story. league.

Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars signed a three-year, $12 million contract as a restricted free agent ahead of the 2022-23 season when he had 77 games of NHL experience. Although Oettinger was only 23 years old at the time of signing, he had an outstanding seven-game run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs that spring.

A less relevant comparable is Thatcher Demko, who is $5 million against the Vancouver Canucks’ salary cap on a five-year contract. He had only played 62 games in the NHL when he signed the contract at the age of 25, but it became a bargain for the Canucks.

Although several of Luukkonen’s teammates have received long-term contract extensions, it is unlikely that he will be a candidate for such an extension this summer. A six- or seven-year pact would reduce the annual cap hit but require the team to take a significant risk.

After all, Luukkkonen had an .897 save percentage in 46 NHL games before this season. Consistency is the true test of an NHL goaltender. Only a few elite goalkeepers are able to repeat their success year after year. He also has an injury history that includes double hip surgery in 2019 and multiple lower body ailments that delayed his full-time arrival in the NHL. Luukkonen was healthy this season, however, and appeared in 35 of the last 41 games.

The Sabers aren’t committing a lot of money long-term to a goaltender while they have Levi ready to take an NHL job. The 22-year-old nearly led them to the Stanley Cup Playoffs last year when he was fresh out of Northeastern University. He’s had some struggles with inconsistency in his 23 games with Buffalo this season, but he’s also had some stellar performances. Levi was in goal in wins over the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Golden Knights and Bruins.

Levi was outstanding in the American Hockey League. He has a .938 save percentage in four playoff games with the Amerks, and he was their MVP as they enter a series-deciding Game 5 Friday night in Rochester. Levi will be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2025, and the NHL depth chart will be reset in the fall when the Sabers hold training camp under Lindy Ruff.

Evolving-Hockey.com Projects Luukkonen will receive a four-year contract with an average annual value of $5.2 million. Even though Luukkonen made more than Gustavsson last summer, he probably hasn’t proven enough yet to collect the $5 million that was paid to Saros. An annual cap hit of around $4.5 million seems like a logical landing spot for the Sabers and Luukkonen when looking at comparable contracts and accounting for inflation.

Wherever the two teams land, the Sabers finally have a goaltending depth chart that inspires optimism and should remain a strength for years to come.

“The most important thing is just to prove to myself and everyone that I can be a starter in this league and a good starter too,” Luukkonen said. “I feel like my numbers were good this year and I feel like I played a good number of good games, and I helped the team win almost every night. So, I think finding my confidence and being a confident goalie has been the biggest thing for me this year.