Some Thoughts on the Houston Astros at the All-Star Break

What a ride! The fact that Houston is sitting second in the American League West in early to mid-July shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. They were in that position last season and still managed to make the ALCS. How Houston got there… well, there’s that story. A 12-24 start wasn’t on anyone’s bingo cards at the beginning of the year. Yet, Houston is 34-20 since that point, climbing back above .500 and just 2 runs behind the American League West-leading Mariners. While there’s still baseball to be played before the All-Star break, Houston’s overarching goal of potentially winning its 2nd World Series in 3 years still hangs in the balance. July promises to be a pretty intriguing time for H-town. For better or worse… we’ll see. To that end, a few observations.

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Dana Brown, call to Dana Brown: Last season, Brown didn’t wait until the July deadline to trade three of the organization’s top five prospects for the former Graveman and Verlander. Those trades proved to be a mixed blessing, as while Verlander managed to put up enough WAR to give Houston another AL West title and an ALCS appearance, Graveman made only minor contributions before shoulder issues sidelined him before the 2023 playoffs and the entire 2024 season. Pitching was a major issue in 2023, and it’s even more so in 2024. The attrition in the starting rotation is well-known, with eight starters so far this season either logging time on IR or yet to make their MLB debut. There is progress with Garcia, Verlander is set to begin a rehab assignment, Bloss could still return to the fray and maybe, just maybe McCullers will finally come off a paid medical leave to pitch for the first time since October 2022. However, that leaves the current starting rotation perilously thin. Also, remember that Valdez was on the list with elbow soreness. While that appears to have resolved itself, it’s not a given that it won’t resurface. Two mainstays of the rotation, Blanco and Arrighetti, are on pace to break their single-year innings pitched records. The inevitable wear and tear will hit at some point. Without reinforcements, Houston will be in deep trouble. Maybe by September, the internal reinforcements will be back and the team can solidify a starting rotation, but July and August will be critical.

Dana Brown enters the picture. With Houston seemingly climbing out of its self-inflicted hole to start the season, they should be buyers. Still, the team is going to have to get pretty creative. They don’t have a ton of top-tier prospects to offer without further mortgaging their future. The team doesn’t have much wiggle room before moving into a higher tax bracket, with significant financial and draft position penalties that would further hamper the rebuilding of its once-rich farm system. With key contributors like Verlander, Bregman, and potentially Pressly in their final seasons with the team, the Last Dance vibe will likely see Houston making moves. However, with most of the other contenders all having pitching needs, many with stronger farm systems, and few teams likely to trade, it won’t be easy. Perhaps he can achieve the impossible, by connecting short-term needs with long-term planning. However, it will be a stressful month.

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About this bullpen: Coming into the season, especially after signing Hader, Houston thought it had the best 7th, 8th, and 9th inning arms in the game. However, that’s not exactly the case. Houston fans are almost as scared as opponents when Abreu/Pressly/Hader come on. The idea of ​​having two top-tier closers on the roster should theoretically work, but it doesn’t really. Especially when Houston is up by one run or tied, those two aren’t exactly shutting the door. Hader with 5 losses and 8 home runs allowed in his appearances doesn’t make this $90 million deal seem all that smart. Yes, only one “blown” save, but 5 losses doesn’t really speak to the blown save stat. Pressly has already blown 5 saves, and that’s as a backup closer. As for Abreu or Montero, when it comes to filling the role of a stopper, they have blown 6 of 7 saves. For a team with an increasingly small margin for error, every pitch has to count. The fact that the supposed “best” arms in the bullpen aren’t up to par doesn’t bode well for the second half of the season. While it seems unlikely that Hader will leave Houston before 2028, Pressly could be a trade option. Sure, you don’t want to get rid of an All-Star level reliever, but maybe he needs to go somewhere else to be the primary stopper, and Houston won’t mind shedding some salary to avoid tax liabilities. While a starter is the primary concern, more backup help and/or prospects are never going to be turned down by this organization.

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The sweet Wild West: This season, if any of the top three teams in the AL West can reach 90 wins, it’s a major accomplishment. Seattle still holds the division lead, but the 10-game margin is now just 2 over Houston. The Rangers, once hot on Seattle’s heels, are 6 under .500 and even further behind the Mariners. All three teams have significant shortcomings, but also have the potential, especially if they play their trade deadline moves right, to do some serious damage in the playoffs. The math is that someone will win the AL West, and maybe the West will only have one playoff representative. Still, the teams that get the AL West representative might not like this matchup. It’s worth noting that Seattle still holds the tiebreakers over Houston (5-2) and Arlington (5-1) with two series each remaining (6 games against HOU, 7 against TEX). Houston holds the tiebreaker against the Rangers (4-3, 6 remaining).

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Joker Criticality: While the American League West remains a viable target, Houston will be keeping a close eye on the Wild Card situation. Among the teams facing them, Houston has already lost the season series to the Yankees (1-6) and Twins (2-4). They still have matchups with the Royals (0-3, 4 remaining) and Red Sox (6 remaining), as well as division leaders Cleveland (2-1, 3 remaining) and Baltimore (3-0, 4 remaining). Factoring in the matchups with Arlington and Seattle, as well as the rest of the schedule, Houston needs to continue to play hard for the remainder of the regular season, let alone the playoffs. While Houston hasn’t had to play in a Wild Card round in a full season since 2015, the team’s poor start could force the team to go that route. But Washington and Texas/Arlington can tell you that all you have to do is get in the dance.

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Watch the weather: If a black swan could potentially hit the Astros (not to mention everything that went wrong in March-early May), look at the weather. The storm season got off to a pretty quick start with Beryl (I hope everyone is doing well). With projections showing a very active storm season, the impact of another storm later this summer can’t be completely dismissed. Will this lead to doubleheaders or a repeat of 2008-2017, when Houston had to play key series in geographically separate locations? While the main focus is on Houston, the team still has trips scheduled to Florida (Rays), Baltimore, and Philadelphia, all of which could be affected by direct or residual action from the storm. Additionally, weather in other parts of America could disrupt games this summer. While Houston has plenty of championship experience to withstand (so to speak) schedule changes, does that represent a much greater burden for a team that has little to no margin for error heading into the season? Stay tuned.