Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Prediction for 06/02/2024

Date: June 2, 2024
Place: Minute Maid Park
Starting pitchers:
- Simeon Woods Richard – Twins
- Hunter Brown – Astros

Betting Odds

Money line:	Twins 120, Astros -140
Execution line:	Twins 1.5 -175, Astros -1.5 155
Over/Under total:	8.5 -115

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Win Odds

Implied win %:	Projected win%:
Minnesota Twins – 44%	Minnesota Twins – 40.51%
Houston Astros – 56%	Houston Astros – 59.49%

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the likelihood of an event happening based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Winning Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate made by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League game at Minute Maid Park, the Houston Astros will face the Minnesota Twins on June 2, 2024. The Astros, who currently hold a record of 26-33, have struggled this season, while the Twins had good results with a record of 32-26.

The Astros will have home-field advantage for this game, hoping to turn the tide. They will rely on their projected starting pitcher, Hunter Brown, a right-handed pitcher. Despite his team’s poor record, Brown showed promise individually, ranking as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced stats power rankings. His 6.39 ERA this season may be misleading, as his 3.80 xFIP suggests he was unlucky and likely to perform better in the future. Brown has started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-5.

On the other side, the Twins will send Simeon Woods Richard to the mound. Woods Richard is also a right-handed pitcher, but he has struggled this season. According to our advanced power rankings, he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Despite his solid ERA of 2.70, his xFIP of 4.34 indicates that he got lucky and may regress in future performances. Woods Richard has started 8 games this year, going 2-0.

Offensively, the Astros performed well, ranking as the 5th best offense in MLB. They showed power, ranking 9th in team home runs, and were average in team batting average, ranking 14th. The Twins, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 12th in MLB. They also showed some power, ranking 7th in team home runs, but their team batting average ranks 22nd.

With the Astros having the advantage of a solid offense and being the home team, they are the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Twins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%. The game total for this match is set at 8.5 points, which is considered average.

Quick takes on the Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson had a great performance in his last GS and allowed 2 ER.

A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp again in his next outing.

Byron Buxton is listed 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a drop from his 91% success rate in the top half of the lineup this year.

The lower the order in which a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will have and the fewer opportunities he will have to reach the Over for each market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide an opportunity for additional value since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins today have 4 hitters in their projected batting order with a high underlying K% (i.e. over 27%) (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach).

Teams that have multiple high-output hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts.

Quick takes on the Houston Astros:

Averaging 13.3 strikeouts per game per start this year, Hunter Brown ranks in the 10th percentile.

A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and vice versa for under.

Yordan Alvarez’s quickness has declined this year. His Statcast sprint speed of 25.86 ft/sec last season now sits at 25.38 ft/sec.

Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat ground balls, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Houston Astros hitters together rank among the worst in MLB since the start of last season (8th worst) when it comes to their average exit velocity of 88.6 mph.

Hitting the ball hard increases the chance that a home run or the ball will land in fair territory for a hit before a defensive player can reach it.

Gaming Trends

The Houston Astros have reached the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+7.05 units / 13% ROI)
The Minnesota Twins have reached the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.00 units / 20% ROI)
Alex Kirilloff has reached Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 matches (+14.00 units / 42% ROI)