How likely is the Bills defense to finish among the best in the NFL?

Three things are certainties in life: death, taxes and the Buffalo Bills will have a generally strong defense under head coach Sean McDermott.

Buffalo finished all but one of its seven seasons under McDermott with a top-10 defensive unit, finishing first in total defense in the 2021 and 2022 campaigns. The continued excellence can be attributed to several factors: continuity at multiple positions keys, the team’s ability to effectively replace contributors after they leave and, perhaps most importantly, McDermott’s excellence as a defensive coach.

His abilities could be tested in the 2024 campaign, as the Bills parted ways with several key starters throughout the offseason. Buffalo parted ways with cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the spring; the three have anchored the team’s secondary since McDermott’s arrival in 2017, combining for 284 starts, four Pro Bowls and five All-Pro selections.

Upheaval in the secondary aside, Buffalo’s defense remains largely the same; White has missed much of the last two seasons with significant leg injuries, and the team has already effectively replaced him with Rasul Douglas. So, the safety positions are the only positions where the Bills will deploy new starters next season; they are expected to return nine starters.

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The general continuity and presence of McDermott should allow Buffalo’s defense to be solid once again next season. Jared Dubin of CBS Sports agrees; In a recent article ranking the league’s defenses on their likelihood of finishing in the top 10, the author ranked the Bills among the NFL’s second tier, writing that they are “fairly likely” to finish in the top 10 in total defense. .

“The Bills made a ton of changes this offseason to a defense that essentially collapsed under the weight of a boatload of injuries last year,” Dubin wrote. “But Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver are still there. So is Sean McDermott. And it’s been some pretty consistent high-flying defense when healthy. Sure, some pieces are gone, but especially if they bring back Micah Hyde (who says he wants to come back), the infrastructure is enough to say, yeah, it’s pretty likely they’ll get there.”

Dubin’s assessment is fair, but the team, once again, returns nine starters; Hyde and Poyer are significant losses, but with both being 33 years old, Buffalo had to move on sooner rather than later. McDermott also has a penchant for “coaching” defensive backs and allowing them to perform above their perceived talent level; their departures will likely be better hidden than many expect.

It’s fair to have some hesitation regarding the Bills’ defense given the team’s turnover this offseason, but it will likely be fine. Buffalo has, after all, finished with a top-10 unit in six of the last seven years, and it probably wouldn’t be wise to bet against the team in 2024.