Will the Atlanta Braves ever start another No-Hitter?

Raisel Iglesias didn’t record the first two outs of the ninth inning on May 11 in easy fashion. But after forcing Pete Alonso to ground out on the eighth pitch of the bat and the 14th pitch of the inning, a sense of inevitability enveloped Citi Field.

Braves fans, who had already begun to drown out Mets fans in the crowd of 38,919, began doing the Tomahawk Chop. And Braves fans, Mets fans and impartial observers took out their phones as JD Martinez stepped to the plate.

It was finally going to happen. The Braves, the epitome of sustained pitching excellence, were going to throw a no-hitter. Who didn’t want video proof of the final elimination and the end of the drought?

Except, of course, that no-hitter bid ended like every other Braves no-hitter bid over the past 30 years when Martinez hit a first-pitch fastball about 10 feet beyond the right field fence to end a combined chase of history by Max Fried (first seven innings), Joe Jimenez (eighth inning) and Iglesias.

It’s the Mets, so you expected Ronald Acuna Jr. to climb the wall and do a somersault while managing to grab some gems, but nope. The Braves’ no-hit drought is such a strong entity that even the perpetually dismal Mets can’t end it.

The less dismal Cubs and Padres also couldn’t do it over the past 10 games, bringing the Braves’ hit drought to 4,877 games — counting the postseason — since Kent Mercker held the Dodgers hitless on April 8, 1994.

The only teams for whom articles about their no-hit droughts would be more persistent are Cleveland (no hit since Len Barker’s perfect game against the Blue Jays on May 15, 1981), the Blue Jays (no hit since Dave Stieb, a chapter of his own in any book on near-no-hitters, finally threw his only no-hitter against Cleveland on September 2, 1990) and the Royals (no no-hitter since Bret Saberhagen’s gem against the Chicago White Sox on August 1, 1990). 26, 1991)

“It’s rare: how many matches have been played? » said Braves catcher (and former Mets catcher, of course) Travis d’Arnaud after the Braves’ 4-1 victory. “How many were there in total?” »

Entering play on Thursday, there have been 383 no-hitters in 239,022 games since 1876. That means the odds of a hit being thrown are 0.002 percent per game (or 0.0016 percent, if you want to be more specific).

The odds of seeing a no-hitter since 1995 — the Braves’ first full-season drought — are even lower, at 0.001 percent per game (or 0.0006 percent, if you want to be more precise).

So, on one hand, it’s understandable that the Braves didn’t throw a no-hitter. That’s hard to do, even for a team that has pitched better than almost anyone else over the last three decades. Since 1994, the Braves rank second in baseball with 2,656 wins, a 3.80 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

But the Yankees, first in wins since 1994, and the Dodgers, first in ERA and WHIP, have combined for nine no-hit games (and two perfect games, both by the Yankees) since Merccker’s gem.

Seventeen other teams have thrown multiple hits since 1994, including the Marlins, who have the fourth-worst record in baseball over that span but also have six hits. That’s tied with the Phillies behind the Astros (eight). Even the Mets, who were once the poster franchise for no-hitters, threw two no-hitters.

And none of those multi-hitting teams had a trio of Hall of Famers accounting for nearly 20% of their starts since 1994. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz combined to start 922 games for Atlanta, but none since 2008. They finished without a hit in a total of 1,903 starts, but players like Chris Heston, Bud Smith, Philip Humber and Jose Jimenez combined for four no-hitters – Humber’s was a perfect game – out of 146 career starts.

At least Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz are in good company. Tim Hudson, who played nine seasons of his borderline Hall of Fame career in Atlanta, never threw a no-hitter for the Braves. Nor are current ace-caliber Braves Chris Sale or Spencer Strider.

Fried is the third All-Star to throw a Braves no-hitter bid that ended in the ninth in the last 10 years. Shelby Miller’s bid was terminated by the Marlins with two outs on May 17, 2015) while Mike Foltynewicz continued his pursuit. history ended on June 30, 2017, when current Braves first baseman Matt Olson led off the ninth with a home run for the Athletics. And Sean Newcomb, who nearly went no-hitter against the Dodgers on July 29, 2018, was a former first-round draft pick who was the centerpiece of the Andrelton Simmons trade to the Angels early in the team’s rebuild. Brave. in 2015.

“With all the Hall of Famers running around here and the guys with electric stuff, it’s not easy, so many things have to go right,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said.

Perhaps the pitcher to make everything go smoothly will be Fried, who went hitless in the sixth inning for the third no-hitter this season on Wednesday, when he settled for a complete game three hits in a 9-2 win over the Cubs. . Or maybe it will be a pitcher in the middle of an otherwise ordinary career.

Or maybe the Braves will simply go no-hitter, continuing their decades-long success on the mound while embodying the quirky, random nature of the no-hitter, or lack thereof.

“It’s really cool to be part of a group of almost 26 outfielders,” Braves centerfielder Michael Harris II said. “So hopefully this season or in the near future we can knock one out.”