The ultimate impact of the Deshaun Watson trade is now clear

It’s hard to believe that it’s now been over two years since the Houston Texans, and specifically general manager Nick Caserio, pulled off what turned out to be one of the greatest heists in history. NFL history: The trade of quarterback Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns. On that fateful day in March 2022, the Texans traded Deshaun Watson and a 2024 6th round pick for the following return:

* 1st round pick in 2022, 2023 and 2024
*4th round picks in 2022 and 2024
* 3rd round pick in 2023

As much as Caserio likes to trade up and down in the draft, it’s difficult to draw a direct line to who exactly the Texans ended up acquiring as a result of these specific picks. The Texans kept very few, often moving up and down these locations. That hasn’t stopped many media outlets from trying to establish some sort of flowchart to quantify the return.

If you click on four different articles talking about ROI, you’ll likely read four different ROIs. Needless to say, the Texans are happy to get out of the Deshaun Watson business, a business that will cost the Browns $64 million in salary cap space over each of the next three seasons. Oh, and did I mention Watson just had shoulder surgery that ended his 2024 season early? Well, that’s also a fact.

So, instead of trying to list the players the Texans received directly and indirectly from these picks, I chose to list what the trade allowed the Texans to definitely do over the past two seasons. Here are four key elements:

I greased the skids for the Will Anderson trade
Simply put, without the Deshaun Watson trade, Will Anderson is not a Houston Texan. The 3rd overall pick in the 2023 draft was acquired as an upgrade from Cleveland’s first round pick in that draft, 12th overall. The premium pick the Texans used to make this move was their own 2024 first-round pick, a move that was less painful to make knowing they also held Cleveland’s 2024 first-round pick. Watson’s return to them gave the real capital and psychological flexibility to execute arguably the second largest trade in franchise history (first place being Watson, of course).

Gave Caserio so many draft swings
Caserio himself admits that the project is inaccurate bullshit. Each choice has a decent probability of failure. So the more swings you get in the draft, i.e. MORE picks, the more likely you are to acquire marquee players. The Texans got six additional swings at the plate on trade day, three of which were PREMIUM swings in the first round, and it’s no coincidence that the team’s roster depth completely reversed in less than two years. The Texans were a horrible football team when this trade fell through. They are now Super Bowl contenders.

Dell tank!
If there’s one pick we can trace almost directly to the Watson trade, it’s Tank Dell in the third round of the 2023 draft. Dell went 69th overall, a move up four spots from compared to the Browns’ third-round pick (73rd overall). This one is enough of a step for me to be able to thank Watson directly for this choice. I think Dell is going to be a superstar.

Freed the game for CJ Stroud
Looking back, perhaps the biggest benefit of the trade had nothing to do with the draft picks acquired. Moving on from Watson opened the door for the Texans to find another franchise quarterback, and as good as Watson was on the field most of his time as a Texan, CJ Stroud is superior. Plus, for now, he works much cheaper than Watson. Stroud will one day have a cap hit in the $60 million per year range, but today is not that day.

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