Bills have good chance of signing former NFL Offensive Player of the Year

What steps can be taken to help address the situation of a revamped receiving corps filled with talented, but generally inexperienced, receivers?

Sure, sign the player who twice led the NFL in receptions.

At least that’s the solution that bookmakers are deeming feasible, as BetOnline has given the Buffalo Bills good odds to sign veteran receiver Michael Thomas. The Bills currently have the second-best odds in the league to sign the two-time All-Pro at +500, behind the Dallas Cowboys at +300.

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The potential signing makes sense from 30,000 feet up. Buffalo revamped its receiving corps in the 2024 offseason, parting ways with Gabriel Davis and perennial Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs before filling out the room with unproven options who, while objectively competent, offer little demonstrated career production. Third-year contributor Khalil Shakir, drafted free agent Curtis Samuel and second-round draft pick Keon Coleman are expected to lead the way in the receiving corps, and while all three are, again, talented, none of them are proven primary targets.

Adding Thomas to the mix would give the Bills a proven wide receiver who, in theory, would serve as a reliable option for quarterback Josh Allen. The receiver caught 565 passes for 6,569 yards and 36 touchdowns throughout his stellar professional career, earning NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2019 thanks to his spectacular 1,725-yard season.

It’s a perfect match in theory. Buffalo needs proven wide receivers to play with its otherworldly quarterback. A three-time Pro Bowler is available as a free agent this summer. It seems like a no-brainer.

It only takes a little critical thinking to begin to see the flaws in the plan. Thomas, while objectively one of the most productive receivers of his generation, is 31 years old and has a well-documented recent injury history that is a major source of concern. He has been limited to just 20 games over the last four seasons due to various lower-body injuries, including a nagging ankle injury that caused him to miss the entire 2021 campaign.

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And even if he momentarily ignores his health issues, Thomas has looked like a shadow of his former self the past two seasons. He has caught just 52 passes for 619 yards over the past two campaigns. There are obviously a number of circumstances at play — the New Orleans Saints haven’t necessarily been a model of offensive competence in recent years — but Thomas has objectively not been as productive as he once was.

It’s also worth remembering that Buffalo’s moves at receiver this offseason were made with intent. The team has a clear plan in place: Moving on from Diggs signals not only a desire to get younger at the position, but also an aspiration to take a more egalitarian approach to aerial production rather than funneling the offense toward a single target. That’s what the team appears to be trying to do with Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid; signing a 31-year-old who averaged about 150 targets per season in his prime is a direct contradiction of the team’s current strategy.

Thomas wouldn’t be a bad low-risk pick if he were willing to take a team-friendly deal, but the Bills will likely be just fine without him. Buffalo has talent throughout its receiving corps and its offense is led by one of the best playmakers in the league. There’s no real need for a 31-year-old with a history of ankle injuries.

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