The Bills are the third seed in the Super Bowl, although they are not assured of a playoff spot until Week 18.

The Buffalo Bills are not guaranteed a playoff spot heading into the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season. Yet the bills are the co-no. 3 favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Buffalo is +800 to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM as it enters its Week 18 matchup with the Miami Dolphins as a slight favorite. The Bills are favored by three points in the game that will determine the AFC East title.

If Buffalo wins, the Bills will be the second seed in the AFC playoffs and host a wild-card playoff game. If Miami wins, the Dolphins will be division champions and Buffalo will be on their way to start the playoffs. Or maybe not even in the playoffs at all.

If Buffalo loses, if the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans, if the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens, and if the game between the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts does not end in a tie, the Bills will miss the playoffs altogether. This is not a completely implausible scenario; Tennessee has nothing to play for and Baltimore could rest important players like QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, LB Roquan Smith and others with the AFC’s No. 1 seed locked up.

At the very least, Buffalo will know before Sunday if it’s facing a win-win scenario Sunday night. The Steelers, Ravens, Texans and Colts play Saturday. If Baltimore wins Saturday afternoon, Buffalo will make the playoffs no matter what happens in the AFC South game.

The Ravens (+350) and San Francisco 49ers (+210) are the only two teams with better Super Bowl odds than the Bills and both of those teams have first-round byes in the playoffs. San Francisco has clinched the top playoff spot in the NFC and will likely rest its starters against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

The Dallas Cowboys have the same odds as the Bills and should become the second seed in the NFC playoffs with a win against the Washington Commanders in Week 18.

The Kansas City Chiefs clinched third place in the AFC after winning an eighth straight AFC West title in Week 17 and are the No. 5 Super Bowl favorite at +900. The Chiefs could host the Bills in the wild-card round if Buffalo loses to Miami and earns the sixth seed.

Super Bowl favorites heading into Week 18

• San Francisco 49ers (+210)

• Baltimore Ravens (+350)

• Buffalo tickets (+800)

• Dallas Cowboys (+800)

• Kansas City Chiefs (+900)

• Philadelphia Eagles (+1100)

• Miami Dolphins (+1300)

• Detroit Lions (+2000)

• Cleveland Browns (+3500)

• Jacksonville Jaguars (+3500)

• Los Angeles Rams (+6600)