Updated data indicates lower chance of rain for today

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – Today’s forecast: Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are expected south of I-10 early Thursday morning, gradually moving out to sea by late morning.

Overall, the forecasts for the probability of rain inland today are much lower. With this in mind, I am assuming a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Even with the lower than expected chance of rain, temperatures should not be quite as hot today, with highs of around 35 degrees.

Weekend outlook

The high pressure system currently to our west will expand eastward over the weekend, bringing a return of uncomfortably hot weather. Maximum temperatures will rise again to 35-40 degrees by Saturday and Sunday, and heat index values ​​will once again begin to flirt with heat warning criteria (above 42 degrees).

The chance of rain drops from 50% on Friday to 30-40% over the weekend.

Expanded outlook

Some level of high pressure looks set to linger along the Gulf Coast for most of next week, although the intensity of that high pressure will vary from day to day. Additionally, high pressure typically indicates a low chance of rain, but increased moisture levels should be enough to produce at least isolated showers and thunderstorms by midweek. It still looks like we’re in for a hot Fourth of July, with highs in the 35s to 40s and only a few afternoon thunderstorms.

Tropical Update

The chances of development have increased rapidly with a tropical wave over the open Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast as of 1 a.m. Thursday now puts those chances at 70%. So there’s a good chance that the next tropical depression of the season will form from this system, which will move mostly westward over the coming days. It’s far too early to speculate on whether it will ever pose a problem for interests in the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding areas.

Elsewhere, the NHC continues to track a tropical wave over the western Caribbean. The probability of formation remains at only 20% and the system is expected to remain well south of us.

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