Houston Astros closer’s kryptonite distracted team from strong season

The Houston Astros raised some eyebrows this offseason when they signed a closer to a historic contract, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations so far. Could he have a good second half of the season? Has he been as bad as the surface numbers suggest?

Josh Hader has been one of the best shortstops in MLB since his rookie season, and has appeared in each of the six All-Star Games since his first full season.

He has a career 2.63 ERA, but that number has jumped to 3.86 over his first 42 games with Houston.

MLB.com’s Cole Jacobson analyzed the chances of some struggling former All-Stars turning things around. He thinks the former Milwaukee Brewer should have a better second half of the season. He looked under the hood and found he’s not really a different pitcher.

“Hader’s 40.4% strikeout rate leads all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings, and it’s also the highest since 2021. His 39.5% strikeout rate ranks third among the 340 pitchers who have faced at least 250 swings,” Jacobson said. “His 1.000 WHIP is his lowest since 2021, while his .188 xBA and 2.74 xERA both rank in the 93rd percentile in MLB or better. By just about any measure outside of actual ERA, Hader is who he’s always been.”

The 30-year-old is also allowing fewer walks to hitters than in all but one season.

One negative statistic that stands out is that he has allowed more home runs than usual. His eight home runs would be enough to tie his third-most home runs in a single season. He has allowed four in the last month alone and has given up just five total hits in that span. Just under 20 percent of all balls hit against him have left the field.

Long balls were his kryptonite and without them he might have made his seventh All-Star team this season.

Hader believes he has identified the problem that is causing the home runs, namely the location of his fastball. If he can get it back where he wants it, he could return to his normal dominance.

Adding another closer at the upcoming deadline could be a good idea in case Hader can’t turn things around. Fortunately, some big names like Camilo Doval and Kyle Finnegan should be available.

If the Astros hope to make a comeback in the American League West, they will need to be able to count on their bullpen.