AL West race resumes in Seattle

ARLINGTON — Different trajectories led the Astros and Mariners into the All-Star break in similar situations. Three games after that one in Seattle, the situation worsened and the Astros found themselves in a race in the American League West.

“We didn’t really finish the first half strong, I would say, so it’s a big series, especially in the standings right now,” Seattle All-Star starting pitcher Logan Gilbert said this week. “I think it’s a big message for who’s going to get into the rhythm to start the second half.”

The Mariners held a 10-game lead in the American League West on June 19. By winning three of four against the Astros at T-Mobile Park in late May, they went on a 16-5 run that opened a formidable gap between Seattle and the rest of the division.

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Seattle, however, finished the first half 8-15. And Houston went 17-6 over the same period to enter the break a game behind the Mariners with a chance to take the division lead, or a share, when the teams meet again in Seattle starting Friday.

“This is a team we’re obviously going to fight to the end,” Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez said through an interpreter at the All-Star Game. “There’s still a lot of baseball left to play. So I don’t think this series is going to define the division. But there’s still a lot on the line.”

The Mariners’ main problem is well-known. They finished the first half of the season with the third-lowest team earned run average in baseball, but with the third-lowest runs per game. No major league offense has a lower batting average or a higher strikeout rate. Two of them have lower OPS, which sometimes hurts their excellent pitching.

No starting rotation in baseball has held opponents to a lower OPS or pitched more innings than the Mariners in the first half of the season. One of them has posted a lower ERA. Their bullpen ranks second in opponents’ average and ninth in ERA, underscoring expectations that Seattle will continue its offense at the trade deadline.

The Astros know the challenge of pitching in Seattle. In seven games against the Mariners this season, Houston has 18 runs and is 2-5. They have scored two runs or fewer in four of those games. Their offense has averaged 2.6 runs against Seattle and 4.9 runs against all other teams.

Houston’s offense before the pause, however, bore little resemblance to the inconsistent version of the first two months of the season. Over their final 35 games, played without Kyle Tucker, the Astros averaged 5.4 runs in a well-rounded display of production that relied more on run-making rallies and timely hits.

Tucker’s timetable for returning from a bruised shin remains unknown. The right fielder had yet to return to defensive work or hitting in the field last weekend, and given that he last played on June 3, he will likely need a minor league rehab assignment before rejoining the Astros.

Houston will also begin the second half of the season without Justin Verlander, who is still out with a neck injury. Verlander allowed just one run in seven innings in his only start against the Mariners this season. The Astros’ other starters have played their lineup with varying degrees of success.

Framber Valdez allowed eight runs in 11 1/2 innings in his first two starts against Seattle. Hunter Brown’s outing against them on May 5 was the first in which Brown reintroduced the sinker that helped him turn things around, and he held the Mariners to one run in six innings in their next matchup. Ronel Blanco allowed three runs in six innings in his only start so far this season against Seattle.

Neither team had announced its rotation for the upcoming series as of Wednesday, and the Astros had to consider including Blanco. Blanco started Houston’s final game before the break and his workload (109 innings) is approaching his career high for a professional season (125⅓).

The fact that Blanco’s velocity dropped slightly in his last two starts before the break might have reinforced the idea that a break would be beneficial as he enters a second half of the season that will explore uncharted territory. But Blanco has also been the Astros’ best starter, and the one they would ideally use in a meaningful series.

Spencer Arrighetti pitched six scoreless innings in his only start against the Mariners this season, perhaps giving Houston a logical alternative if it preferred to rest Blanco until his second post-break series at Oakland. Valdez, who could start the opener at Seattle on eight days’ rest, and Brown, who last started June 12, are both expected to start against the Mariners.

Whether Blanco faces them or not could indicate how crucial the Astros view this series. The two teams will meet only once, in the final week of the regular season, when the standings and rosters of the two teams could be significantly different.