Storm probability Tuesday and Tuesday night

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• First weather warning day on Tuesday: Isolated strong winds, possibility of flooding on Tuesday evening
• Short window for warming on Tuesday, but it doesn’t look as hot as Monday (still very humid)
• Big cooling comes on Wednesday – the weekend

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The dangerous heat will likely ease on Tuesday due to the risk of thunderstorms and cloud cover. There is still a short window of time where temperatures could warm up to 30 degrees, and with very high humidity, the heat index could reach 100 in St. Louis or get a bit hotter in more southerly areas. However, the temperature forecast will depend heavily on how clouds and rain develop throughout the day.

We have a First Alert Weather Day on Tuesday while we watch for a slight risk of isolated, severe wind gusts. First, there will be some morning thunderstorms triggered by outflow from storms in central Illinois. Outflow is the cool air that flows out of storms and can act like a mini cold front. It can also be notoriously difficult to predict the exact time and location. But those storms are expected to be scattered across the region throughout the morning, then move away during the late morning and afternoon. Then, sometime between late afternoon and Tuesday night, new storms will flare up as the cold front moves into town. Late afternoon and evening storm chances will start at around 40%, but increase to 70% between 10 p.m. and 8 a.m., and this is where we need to watch for isolated areas of flooding.

Big Heat Break: Wednesday morning thunderstorms will move south with the front. However, if the front is slow, we could see some showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 into early Wednesday afternoon before it dries out completely. We’ll have a big heat break Wednesday through the weekend. It will still be a bit muggy on Wednesday, but humidity levels will drop significantly Wednesday night into Thursday.

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