Phillies in enviable position to begin big weekend in Atlanta

Phillies in enviable position to start big weekend in Atlanta originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Who would have expected, when the Braves left town on the first weekend of the season, that when the teams next met, the Phillies would hold a nine-game lead in the NL East?

The Phils entered Atlanta on Thursday night with the largest division lead in baseball. They are shorthanded without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto, but the Braves are also without Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider due to long-term absences.

The Phillies are 10-6 since ending their difficult road trip in London, Boston and Baltimore, winning four of five series and splitting the other.

The Braves finally seemed to be getting going in mid-June when they went 7-2 in three series against the Yankees, Rays and Tigers, but then lost six of their last 10 games to the Cardinals, White Sox, Pirates and Giants.

The Phillies won’t see Chris Sale or Charlie Morton this weekend at Truist Park. The pitching matchups are Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried on Friday in the series opener, Ranger Suarez vs. rookie Spencer Schwellenbach on Saturday and Michael Mercado vs. Reynaldo Lopez on Sunday.

With a nine-game lead, the only scenario that could hurt the Phillies this weekend would be a sweep of Atlanta. Any other outcome would have them heading home for the final week before the All-Star break with an eight-, 10-, or 12-game division lead.

“It’s like any other series, you’re looking to win a series like we did here,” Rob Thomson said on July 4 after the Phillies finished their game at Wrigley Field. “They’re a good team. They’ve got good pitching, and I know everybody talks about how their offense hasn’t clicked yet, but they’re a powerful team. We’ve got work to do. We’ve got to go get them.”

The Phillies and Braves rank first and second in the major leagues in run prevention, with per-game averages of 3.63 and 3.66, well below the league average of 4.37.

The Phillies were much better offensively, scoring 71 more runs than the Braves. That’s the most surprising aspect of these first three months after an entire season of dominance by Atlanta in 2023. So many players — Acuña, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Harris, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Orlando Arcia — had career years they couldn’t repeat.

Thomson’s mindset heading into the series is the same one he flew into Chicago with: Don’t wake up a struggling offense.

It’s fitting that Nola will be on the mound Friday night, as he never seems to miss a Braves series. More than a full season of his career, 36 starts, has come against Atlanta. That includes wins in each of the last two NLDS. Nola is 17-11 with a 3.48 ERA overall against the Braves, though he has a 5.34 ERA in his last 10 starts at Truist Park.

Fried failed to advance past the first inning at Citizens Bank Park in his first start this season, putting six men on base and recording just two outs. His year began with 10 earned runs in five innings, but he has a 2.08 ERA in 14 starts since.

The Phillies have won four of six games since Schwarber and Harper were placed on the disabled list Friday. They scored 2, 2, 2, 5, 6 and 7 runs in those games. Schwarber (groin) could be back as early as Tuesday, and Harper (hamstring) doesn’t appear too far behind.

In the meantime, the Phillies are hoping Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner can stay as healthy as they have been. Castellanos is hitting .377 over the last 16 games with six doubles, three homers and 13 RBIs.

Turner has 22 hits in 66 at-bats (.333) in 15 games since returning from the injured list, with seven extra-base hits and 14 runs scored. His speed made a big difference in Chicago’s series win between an infield single, a stolen base and a tag-up on a fly ball to shallow center field. He hit just .200 with a .268 OBP against the Braves as a Phillie, so this weekend would be a good time for him to make an impact on the rivalry.