MLB Odds, Picks and Bets for Tuesday

After sweeping the Tigers at home this weekend, the 23-13 Yankees will host the Houston Astros for another three-game set at Yankee Stadium.

The ‘Stros have yet to emerge from their early season slump, going 12-22 on the year after losing a home series to Seattle last weekend.

However, Houston’s issues are primarily on the mound, and Justin Verlander hopes he can help alleviate some of those issues as he makes his fourth start in 2024.

Astros vs. Yankees Prediction

(7:05 p.m. ET, TBS)

The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer had three reasonably good starts, allowing just four earned runs in 17 ⅓ innings.

However, I think he was mostly lucky.

Verlander owns an ultra-low BABIP (.239) and an ultra-high slugging rate (93%), two numbers that should regress toward MLB averages (.300 and 72%), leading to plenty of extra earned runs .

His underlying profile still leaves a lot to be desired.

His strikeout rate is down (19%), his walk rate is up (10%), and his groundball rate has dropped (32%), leading to a mostly pedestrian batted ball profile .

I think Verlander is overvalued heading into Tuesday’s start, which is partly explained by the difference between his actual metrics (2.08 ERA, 4.35 FIP) and his expected ones (3.82 xERA, 4 .70 xFIP).

Meanwhile, Luis Gil is technically undervalued by his expected metrics (3.19 ERA, 2.29 xERA), primarily because he is a strikeout machine behind a lively high-90s fastball (40 strikeouts at bat in 31 innings this season).

However, Gil’s questionable command and control of his electric arsenal (20 walks, 93+ runs) could bite him against the ever-disciplined Astros (17% strikeout rate, lowest among lineups). of MLB; 10% strikeout rate, third).

Gil wants to miss bats and the Astros won’t make bad swing decisions.

These two courses are top notch. Against right-handed pitchers, the Yankees rank fourth in wRC+ (120), while the Astros rank eighth (108).

Between two elite lineups and two questionable pitchers, I’m banking on a higher-scoring game Tuesday night in the Bronx.

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Juan Soto could take advantage of the Verlander fly-ball with the short porch in right field, while Yordan Alvarez could draw four walks against Gil.

I’m a little afraid of these two rested pens. But while New York’s relievers have been lights out (2.27 ERA, first among MLB relievers), Houston’s have been a disaster (4.44 ERA, 21st), so late production match won’t be entirely irrelevant.

I’m betting the Over 8.5 (-112) available on FanDuel, a number that has been slowly increasing since markets opened.

Astros vs. Yankees picks

Over 8.5 (-112, FanDuel)