First warning: Weather in detail: Rain is good for lilacs, but not for the lilac festival

ROCHESTER, NY – It’s not raining much. In fact, meteorologist Glenn Johnson does not believe there has been significant flooding in the Rochester area at this point in the spring season. However, what we lack in intensity, we more than make up for in the frequency of the rain. And that’s a cause for concern for the rest of the season.

We can track this by looking at the month of April and the number of days with rain at Rochester Airport. About half the days of the month have measurable moisture in the rain gauge. If you do the math, April’s rainfall was 144 percent of normal. Recently the frequency of rainy weather has decreased, but some of our computer models show that this could soon change again.

It appears that a lot of precipitation will fall through the Ohio Valley in the coming week, but it’s questionable how much of this wet weather will actually reach Western New York. We are confident that the frequency of wet weather will increase. The main reason for this increased frequency is the storm track. Over the past 30 to 40 days, the storm track has been from south to north through the central Great Lakes. This has changed now.

In the coming days (and last week), the storm track will be more west to east across the Ohio Valley. These two patterns are different, but the biggest similarity is that the storms are moving very close to Rochester (regardless of the direction of motion).

A bigger question might be: When will the atmosphere calm down? It’s hard to say, but meteorologists on News10NBC’s First Alert Weather Team will be tracking the trend in the coming days and weeks.