Forecasters are closely monitoring a system off the Texas Gulf Coast

While much of Houston is still reeling from the effects of the Derecho, residents are bracing for a possible tropical storm entering the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch Monday afternoon for parts of the Texas coast and said it would begin forecasting the “potential tropical cyclone.”

Eric Berger, a meteorologist with Space City Weather, said the action means forecasters think the system will likely strengthen into a depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. Berger emphasized that the system – which would become the name Storm Alberto – is not one yet.

The system is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region between Tuesday and Thursday. The National Weather Service has placed Houston under a moderate risk, a level three out of four, for excessive precipitation.

In anticipation of potentially dangerous flooding conditions, Lake Conroe and Lake Houston have been lowered to help reduce the risk of accumulating floodwaters. More tropical moisture is expected to move further inland Tuesday afternoon, which could cause more widespread showers to develop.

Precipitation in the Houston area is expected to be concentrated in locations along and south of Interstate 10, with the heaviest rain falling in areas closer to the coast. Showers could be most intense later in the day Tuesday, continuing through the night and into Wednesday.

Forecasts indicate heavy rain will likely ease westward by Wednesday evening. Berger presented possible scenarios. One scenario would involve most of the precipitation heading south to Houston and Galveston, allowing the region to pick up several inches of rain.

However, he noted that the southern half of the Houston area was slightly more likely to receive four to eight inches of rain through Wednesday, with isolated amounts the highest.

He said the latter scenario would lead to flooding concerns and reiterated that Space City Weather has issued a Level 2 flood warning for the entire region through Wednesday.

In anticipation of potentially severe weather, Fort Bend County officials announced that the Town of Kendleton’s 50th annual Juneteenth celebration has been canceled until further notice. It was initially scheduled to take place on Wednesday.

Another Juneteenth celebration hosted by the Emancipation Park Conservancy, scheduled to take place Wednesday afternoon, was also canceled due to the weather forecast.

This story will be updated as necessary.