Nigeria: The rise of terrorism and its impact on civilians, 2018-2022

On April 26, Ambassador Johnny Carson, senior adviser to the Africa Center and the US Institute of Peace, told me in a one-on-one interview: “Over the last decade, starting around 2009, 2010 and 2011, we have seen a rise in violence in the northeast of the country caused by a group called Boko Haram.” He said: “It is a purveyor of violence, kidnappings and robberies that is open to all… The reason for this is exclusion, because many of the killings, assassinations and kidnappings have been against people of the Muslim faith as well as against the Christian community.”

The goal for Nigeria now is to achieve stability and contain armed violence. With its large economy, democracy and population, Nigeria is one of Africa’s most important countries. As Ambassador Carson reminds us, the country has been the scene of armed violence by non-state violent extremists since 2009. To address and improve understanding of the challenges, efforts have included facilitating discussions between governors of northern Nigeria and U.S. officials, including sharing experiences and strategies for dealing with insecurity. Understanding the rise of terrorism in Nigeria is critical as it helps assess past, current and future security challenges.

According to the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center’s (GTTAC) publicly available Record of Incidents Database (GRID), Nigeria had the third highest death rate per terrorist attack in 2018—6.10 deaths per incident—and 2.18 injuries per terrorist attack. That year, when five countries carried out 75% of all suicide attacks worldwide, Nigeria accounted for a significant share of global suicide attacks and improvised explosive device incidents, with Boko Haram responsible for 16.8% of all IED incidents. Although non-state armed actors in Nigeria accounted for 8% of global terrorism deaths by the end of 2020, this represented a decrease from 2019, despite planned attacks by Ansaru (Jama’atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan) and Zamfara militants. Zamfara militants are based in northwestern and north-central Nigeria.

Although the number of deaths from terrorist attacks decreased globally in 2022, with fewer injuries and fewer kidnappings, the third highest number of terrorist attacks in the world occurred in Nigeria. While the number of terrorist attacks in Nigeria decreased year on year – 2018, 2019 and 2021 – GTTAC data shows not only an increase in the number of attacks in 2021 and 2022, but also that Nigeria again ranked third in the world in the number of attacks committed, with 2,926 fatalities, a 3% increase that reverses the downward trend of previous years. With 56% of attacks this year targeting non-combatants, this has had a significant impact on the country.

On the afternoon of April 25 – two days after the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) hosted 10 Nigerian governors for a strategic event in Washington, DC – Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal spoke to me in an interview about the security problems facing his state, including kidnappings and the causes of the security crisis – a state with an agrarian economy. Sometimes they bomb entire villages or towns, “… they burn their food, they kill people (…) we have about 10 local governments that are affected by these activities.”

The security situation in other parts of the north-western state is not much different. “There is a lot of banditry on the Plateau that has turned into terrorism,” Caleb, the governor of Plateau State, told me in a separate interview, adding that his main concern was “protecting the land, the people and their properties; making sure our people can return to their ancestral homes and their fields.”

The GTTAC data contains unclassified, validated and aggregated data on terrorist attacks worldwide since 2018. The methods used to collect the data are described in detail. The historical data show that there are 49 armed groups in Nigeria. However, there are three types that carry out the most attacks: militancy and ethno-national terrorism, and religious jihadism.

Militancy and ethnonational terrorism

Armed, non-state Fulani militants organize, target, and deliberately carry out unlawful, violent armed actions against unarmed, non-combatant, private and public infrastructure. The perpetrators responsible for instilling fear in civilians and forcing them from their homes were Fulani militants, driven by ethno-nationalist terror motives. They committed the most incidents in 2018, far more than Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa. However, this dynamic had changed by 2020, when Boko Haram actors were the main aggressors.

Using a range of weapons and maneuvers, including ambushes, assassinations, extortions, kidnappings and shootings, they carried out various types of attacks primarily targeting civilians. By the end of 2022, incidents committed by Fulani militias had decreased compared to 2018, but in the four years 2018-2022, the death toll was 3,779 and 807 injured. Although the Fulani use hand-to-hand combat and sharp blades, firearms are their preferred weapons.

Religious Jihadism

The aim of Ansaru (Jama’atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan), Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa as religious jihadist groups is to achieve socio-economic, political and religious goals through targeted attacks on non-combatants.

According to GTTAC data, Ansaru committed only two incidents in 2018. The highest number of incidents with casualties occurred in 2020, with 70. In 2022, the group was responsible for four incidents in which eight people were killed. They use firearms and incendiary devices in almost all of their attacks. In general, they target land transport, facilities and property of other armed non-state actors, as well as private property. They carry out these activities through shootings, kidnappings, executions, extortion and sabotage, among others.

In Boko Haram incidents in 2018, gunfire and explosives were preferred weapons in 74.09% and 18.64% of cases respectively, but a wide range of weapons were used, including small and heavy firearms, non-suicide explosive devices, fully automatic gunfire, and sharp blades. While jihadist incidents committed by Boko Haram decreased by 15% in 2020 compared to 2019 and the death toll decreased by 6.7%, gunfire was still the weapon of choice in 48% of all Boko Haram incidents. In assessing 2020, GTTAC found that Nigeria dropped from third place in the top terrorist list – replaced by the Democratic Republic of Congo – to ninth place globally instead. The tactics most commonly used by attackers in 2021 were shootings and kidnappings (43% and 19% respectively), and they targeted civilians 29% of the time, compared to government forces in 28% of cases. Overall – from 2018 to 2022 – deaths caused by Boko Haram terrorism decreased year-on-year by 93 in 2020, 539 in 2021 and 161 in 2022.

ISIS West Africa’s jihadist incidents increased by 11% in 2020 compared to 2019, and the number of injured casualties increased by 6% compared to the previous year, with 60% of all attacks using firearms. In addition to small, heavy and fully automatic weapons, they also use grenades, IEDs and incendiary devices. In addition to shootings, they also carry out bombings and ambushes. Unfortunately, 2022 saw an expansion of ISIS CORE offshoots such as ISIS West Africa, and the number of incidents increased by 10%. ISIS West Africa’s casualties increased by 815 between 2018 and 2021, increasing by 53 in 2019, 22 in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, on the other hand, there was a decrease in the group’s fatalities by 429, a sharp decrease of -43% compared to the previous year. It is important to highlight that while this is true, GTTAC has uncovered a striking contrast in the number of incidents, where there has been a 10% increase in frequency despite the decline in the number of people killed. Civilians were the largest group of victims, accounting for 28% of incidents, compared to 21% other armed actors and 18% government forces. ISIS West Africa targets not only national facilities, but also law enforcement and intelligence agencies, as well as civilian property.

Zamfara State

In 2021, Zamfara militants were the third-largest perpetrators of terrorist fatalities globally, behind only the Taliban and ISIS-DRC. They carried out 45% of all incidents in the country, totaling 265 incidents, mainly in eight jurisdictions: Kaduna, Katina, Kano, Kibbe, Niger, Sokoto, Federal Capital Territory and Zamfara State. In comparison, ISIS-West Africa ranked 6th.^thBoko Haram, 8^thand Fulani militants ranked 9th – in the top 10 terrorist attacks resulting in deaths worldwide. Notably, despite an 11% decline in global fatalities in 2021, deaths from Zamfara militants, ISIS from West Africa and Fulani militants increased.

In the same year, GTTAC findings indicate a sharp rise in ethno-national terrorism. The data suggests that the perpetrators are Zamfara militants as they committed the 265 incidents as opposed to just 3 in 2019, far more than Boko Haram with 134 incidents and Fulani militants with 115 – but all three: Zamfara militants, Boko Haram and Fulani militants ranked in the top 10 global terror incidents and contributed to global terrorism in 2021. In addition, kidnapping is a major tactic used by Zamfara militants, resulting in 1,802 victims kidnapped by Zamfara militants compared to 345 by ISIS West Africa in 2021. The militants achieve their targets using sharp blades, incendiary devices, non-suicidal IEDs and in at least 400 cases, firearms were used.

“I am only a nominal governor of a state. I am the chief security officer of the state. However, I have no control over the military. I have no control over the police or the civil defence. And that is why I had to refer these matters to Mr President (Tinubu) – to come up with a system and do whatever is necessary to ensure that these guys are taken out of the way,” Governor Lawal told me.

On the positive side, there has been progress. In April, the US Institute of Peace hosted a discussion with Nigerian governors to explore possible solutions. The discussion addressed key issues on how stability in northern Nigeria can contribute to progress, not only in the country, but also in the region and in the shared national interest. The discussion provided a unique opportunity to share experiences and ideas and to address the most pressing security challenges facing Nigeria.

At the invitation of USIP, 10 Nigerian governors traveled to Washington in late April to seek solutions to the complex problems they face. They had the opportunity to meet with representatives from the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State, as well as private sector actors. Nigerian states that experienced a spike in terrorist activity during the four-year period 2018-2022 included Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Niger, Taraba, and Zamfara, among others. While progress is being made in promoting dialogue, a coordinated and sustained effort by all stakeholders is critical to address root causes, curb the activities of armed groups, and reduce the devastating impact on civilians.