Analyzing the eye-opening 2024 ESPN Fantasy statistical projections for the Buffalo Bills

The NFL is in a deep offseason slump, which means there isn’t much to talk about outside of projections. In this article, we’ll take a look at ESPN Fantasy Football 2024 Statistical Projections to see how ESPN thinks the Buffalo Bills will perform for the 2024 season. Along with that, I’ll give my thoughts on my own over/under projections of ESPN’s numbers.

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Strategist

Josh Allen

My minds:

ESPN is projecting Allen to regress significantly in terms of passing yards and passing touchdowns. With the Bills losing their top receiver, Stefon Diggs, Allen regressing is a rational thought. However, a 600-yard drop seems a bit excessive. The 23 passing touchdowns seem extremely low. Both numbers would be Allen’s lowest since 2019.

The only way I could stop Allen from surpassing those passing stats would be if he gets hurt or if the Bills suddenly turn into a ground-and-pound team, which I don’t see happening. One thing that would be welcome is a decrease in Allen’s interceptions. Allen’s rushing projections are spot on, in my opinion.

Allen Plus/Minus

• Passing Yards = More
• Passing TDs = More
• INT = More than
• Rushing Yards = More
• Rushing TDs = Less

The running backs

James Cook

My minds:

I think ESPN’s projections are realistic for Cook. He has capable backups in rookie Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. I imagine Davis will eat up some of the touches Cook had last season. Seeing only six total TDs is surprising, but that’s the same number he had last year. Cook is entering his third year and coming off a solid season. I think he’s good enough to crush those projections and become a fantasy star, but that remains to be seen.

Cook above/below

• Rushing Yards = More
• Rushing TDs = Push
• Receiving Yards = Less
• TD reception = Plus — Cook will make up for wasted opportunities from last season

Ray Davis

My minds:

Ray Davis is a 24-year-old rookie and has the potential to earn playing time right away as Buffalo’s primary backup. I expect Davis to be a decent contributor on offense, but his role will be limited until he proves he can be trusted. Expect him to have a slow start to the season, but to be more involved later in the year.

Davis’s Total Over/Under

• Rushing Yards = More
• Rushing TDs = More
• Receiving Yards = Less
• TD reception = Less

Tight ends

Dalton Kincaid

My minds:

Kincaid is poised to become Allen’s No. 1 target with the departure of Stefon Diggs. The second-year TE broke the Bills’ rookie receptions record and the team’s single-season TE receptions record. Expectations are high for the former first-round draft pick.

Kincaid Plus/Minus

• Receptions = Completed
• Receiving Yards = More
• TD reception = Plus

Dawson Knox

My minds:

Knox had his worst season as a pro in 2023, largely due to an injury that caused him to miss significant time. Kincaid’s emergence improves the Bills’ tight end cap space, but it hurts Knox and his production. ESPN’s projections reflect Knox’s significantly reduced role in Buffalo’s offense with Kincaid’s involvement.

Knox above/below

• Receptions = Less than
• Receiving Yards = Less
• TD reception = Plus

Wide receiver

Keon Coleman

My minds:

All offseason, the pressure was on for Buffalo to secure its new receiver of the future, and Coleman was chosen to fill that crucial role. Expecting a rookie to replicate Diggs’ production over the past four seasons is unrealistic, but Coleman is in a favorable position to succeed.

Diggs’ production will likely be spread out among multiple players. While the NFL has seen success with rookie receivers recently, there’s still a learning curve. If Coleman can prove his worth in the red zone and excel on contested receptions, he should have a solid rookie season.

Coleman Over/Under

• Receptions = Less than
• Receiving Yards = Less
• TD reception = Plus

Khalil Chakir

My minds:

Shakir remains the only WR on Buffalo’s active roster to catch a pass from Josh Allen in the regular season. Shakir burst onto the scene last season and surpassed Stefon Diggs in production in the second half of the year. Shakir is primarily a slot receiver, but I expect him to be seen more often on the outside with Diggs and Davis gone.

I have a feeling that Buffalo natives are expecting a big year from Shakir, but the national media doesn’t seem to be as optimistic. I think Shakir will end up being the Bills’ second-best wide receiver in 2024. I can already see Shakir’s name on ESPN Fantasy’s “most added” list in the first few weeks of the season.

More/Less Shakir

• Receptions = Completed
• Receiving Yards = More
• TD reception = Plus

Curtis Samuel

My minds:

Samuel’s best season as a pro came in 2020 with Joe Brady as his offensive coordinator. Oddly enough, Joe Brady happens to be the Bills’ offensive coordinator in 2024. If you don’t think Brady’s success with Samuel in 2020 had anything to do with why Buffalo signed him as a free agent, then you’re lying to yourself. I imagine Samuel is being used all over the field to try to help the Bills find mismatches and utilize his big-play ability.

More/Less Samuel

• Receptions = Completed
• Receiving Yards = More
• TD reception = Push
• Rushing Yards = More
• Rushing TDs = Push

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

My minds:

MVS joins the Bills from their arch-rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. I have a hard time believing he could play a significant role with the Bills if he wasn’t able to do much with the Chiefs’ mediocre receiving core last season. ESPN’s projections accurately reflect what I expect from MVS.

More/Less Valdes-Scantling

• Receptions = Push
• Receiving Yards = Less
• TD reception = Less

Mack Hollins

My minds:

Hollins was one of the first free agents signed by Buffalo this offseason. Hollins will likely be a key special teams player, but I think he’ll be used more on offense than ESPN anticipates.

Hollins’ Over/Under

• Receptions = Completed
• Receiving Yards = More
• TD reception = Push

Chase Claypool

My minds:

Claypool gets a second chance to revive his career after failing in Pittsburgh and Miami. If Claypool gets his act together, he has the talent to make this team, but he’ll have to earn that opportunity. If he makes the team, the Bills could use him more than we think.

Claypool Plus/Minus

• Receptions = Completed
• Receiving Yards = More
• TD reception = Plus

Other WR

Justin Shorter, KJ Hamler and Andy Isabella will all be battling for roster spots. ESPN’s projections don’t have them on the team. Some could stick around for practice squad spots, but if they make the team, I expect their roles to be minimal. Hamler has the most interesting potential, in my opinion.

D/ST

My minds:

ESPN is predicting a major regression from Buffalo’s defense. The loss of longtime starters Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Tre’Davious White will hurt, but there are also positives to consider.

All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano is back from injury, Von Miller is a year removed from a torn ACL, Terrel Bernard has proven to be a fantastic MLB player, they’ve added younger safeties, and they have Rasul Douglas for a full season. McDermott’s defenses are still an above-average unit in the NFL, and I don’t expect anything different this season.

D/ST Plus/Minus

• Bags = More
• INT = Under
• Fumble recoveries = Less than
• TD = Less than
• Points Allowed = Less than
• Yards Allowed = Less

What do you think of ESPN’s statistical projections for most of the Buffalo Bills roster? Are your projections significantly different from theirs or even mine?