Beryl is expected to strengthen and hit the Texas coast as a dangerous hurricane

The National Hurricane Center predicts Beryl will make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the low-lying or central Texas coast. That’s where it warns of “an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.”

Additionally, very heavy rains, totaling at least 5 to 10 inches, are expected inland, raising the risk of flooding. And this system appears likely to produce a few fast-moving tropical tornadoes, which could affect the greater Houston metropolitan area even if landfall eventually occurs much farther west.

Hurricane warnings cover the Texas coast from southwest Galveston Bay to the Texas-Mexico border, and continue into northeastern Mexico to Barra el Mezquital. Storm surge warnings also cover the Texas coastline, extending from northeast Houston-Galveston to High Island. Expected ocean surge, or the rise in water levels above normally dry land near the coast, could be as much as 3 to 5 feet.

The hurricane center also issued tropical storm warnings for the Texas coast south of Baffin Bay, which lies south of Corpus Christi, to the border with Mexico, where storm conditions will first begin, and said it would likely expand the warnings later Saturday.

Where is Beryl now and how strong is her?

Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph Saturday morning, having lost some of its strength and organization after brushing the Yucatan Peninsula Friday following a Category 2 landfall.

At approximately 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time, its center was located approximately 395 miles (635 km) southeast of Corpus Christi. It was moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of 12 mph (19 km/h).

In satellite imagery taken early Saturday, Beryl appeared quite disorganized, with its low- and mid-level centers misaligned. That means the system is tilted and somewhat off-balance. It won’t be able to strengthen significantly before it reorganizes, and forecasters expect much of Saturday to be spent trying to straighten out. The Hurricane Center wrote that conditions should favor “significant strengthening” by Sunday morning.

When could impacts begin along the Texas coast?

In far southern Texas near Brownsville, rain showers and tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as mid-morning Sunday, spreading northward to Corpus Christi by early to mid-afternoon and Houston by evening. However, it is more likely that most areas will not see heavy rain and strong winds until Sunday evening, and that they will worsen as the storm approaches through early Monday. Preparations for those at risk should be complete by the end of the day Saturday.

The effects of rip currents are already starting to be felt, meaning it is imperative to respect signs and flags on beaches and only swim where lifeguards are present.

The surge will likely begin later Sunday, with each tidal cycle becoming more intense, leading to more splashing and flooding through Monday. The strongest surge will occur east of where the center makes landfall, as that’s where offshore winds will pile up water against the coastline.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), who is in charge while Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on a trade mission to Asia, issued a preemptive disaster declaration for dozens of counties to help provide aid.

How strong will the hurricane be?

Beryl will not be able to strengthen until it reorganizes. With most of Saturday being spent rebuilding, the storm will have no more time to strengthen than it did on Sunday.

That said, forecasters expect the storm to intensify until it makes landfall Sunday night or Monday. In fact, the most favorable conditions for it to strengthen may be just before it makes landfall. That’s when the diffusion of air aloft will strengthen the upward motion and make it easier for warm, moist air to rise into the storm.

Beryl is most likely to be a Category 1 storm when it makes landfall, but there is an outside possibility that it could be somewhat stronger or weaker.

Which areas are likely to be most affected?

Although subject to change, the city most at risk Corpus Christi appears to be the city most affected by hurricanes, especially the northern part. The average computer simulation places the storm on the coast between Corpus Christi and Matagorda. It could make landfall near Rockport, where Hurricane Harvey made landfall in 2017. Houston is not yet safe, however, and neither is Brownsville.

Due to the dry air enveloping the back of the storm, it is likely that the left or western edge of the storm will have a very sharp cutoff. That’s why impacts will vary dramatically just a few miles from the center. One county might be inundated with rain, and the next might barely get an inch of rain.

The heaviest rains will likely occur north and east of where the center reaches the coast. The Hurricane Center said flooding from the heavy rains could be “locally considerable,” with peaks of up to 15 inches (38 cm).

Tornadoes will likely be east of the center, in “feeder bands” that will push into the storm.

The risk of tornadoes and heavy rain could persist through midweek as the remnants of Beryl move inland, possibly extending into southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, and even further east and north later in the week.

What are the biggest unknowns about this storm?

Meteorologists still don’t know exactly where Beryl will make landfall; it’s reasonable to assume it could occur somewhere between South Padre Island and Galveston. Additionally, it’s unclear how quickly Beryl will reorganize, and therefore when the strengthening period will begin.

Since it is a race against time before landfall, every hour that passes is an hour that affects the storm’s eventual peak intensity.

Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2024 season and the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic on Monday night. The storm, fueled by record-breaking ocean waters, broke records for the strength and speed at which it intensified so early in the season, stunning meteorologists.

The storm first hit Grenada, St. Vincent and other Caribbean islands on Monday, leaving widespread destruction. — including on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique — and have left at least five people dead. Three additional deaths have been reported in Venezuela.

In Carriacou, home to about 7,000 people, the hurricane caused “total devastation all around,” said Allison Caton, 50, owner of the Paradise Beach Club, a restaurant and bar on Paradise Beach that was destroyed. Many islanders are now living in makeshift shelters at schools.

The storm brushed Jamaica’s southern coast on Wednesday, bringing torrential rain and winds gusting to over 80 mph (130 km/h) that destroyed homes and toppled trees and power lines. At least two deaths were reported and about 65% of Jamaica Public Service Co. customers, or about 400,000 homes, were without power Thursday, the BBC reported.

The storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands Wednesday night before moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

Beryl struck the Yucatan as a Category 2 hurricane, toppling trees and power lines and causing widespread power outages, but no casualties were reported.

Jason Samenow, Amanda Coletta, Kim Bellware and Samantha Schmidt contributed to this report.