Buffalo Bills’ ‘Moneyball’ Approach at Wide Receiver

The Buffalo Bills can’t replace star receiver Stefon Diggs. But they can try to recreate it globally. At least that’s what general manager Brandon Beane is aiming for.

Since Josh Allen’s breakthrough in Year 2, the Bills have had one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the league. But Allen’s breakthrough (and continued success) is closely tied to the arrival of Diggs. Now that the tandem has parted ways, Allen and the Bills’ offense are looking for other ways to preserve their offensive power.

Buffalo Bills’ ‘Moneyball’ approach at wide receiver

Short passing game

The eye test will tell you that Allen pushes the ball further than most quarterbacks. The figures also confirm this. Over the past three seasons, his average target depth ranks 3rd, 3rd and 7th in the NFL. In simpler terms, Allen’s average pass attempt depth is greater than almost every other quarterback. But without a star receiver constantly breaking free on the field, their philosophy needs to change. It happened to Mahomes when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, and now it’s Allen’s turn to adjust.

Expect the Bills to rely on second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid in that area of ​​the field. Kincaid’s role is a hybrid of tight end and slot receiver. Only one tight end lined up in the slot more than Kincaid last season. His average depth of target (4.9) was among the lowest in the league last year, further illustrating his role as a slot receiver who works in shallow areas of the field. Although slightly undersized, Kincaid’s athleticism sets him apart from most tight ends. His quickness and lateral agility create separation before and after the catch. When he was selected in the first round of last year’s draft, the goal was for him to become a Travis Kelce-like target for Allen. Now he has a golden opportunity to establish himself as the team’s top pass catcher.

If you haven’t heard of Khalil Shakir yet, you will by the end of the year. Shakir was a fifth-round pick in 2022 and has developed better than expected. He followed up a quiet rookie season with a sophomore campaign that included nearly 40 receptions for 600 yards. Like Kincaid, most of that came from quick catches on short routes while he piled up yards after the catch. His 7.6 yards after the catch per reception is as impressive as it sounds. Shakir ranked fourth among all players in that statistic. With Diggs out of the running, expect Shakir to get more snaps and targets.

Note: Others, like James Cook and Curtis Samuel, added in the offseason, frequently help in the short to intermediate passing game. But they bring more than that, and it’s unfair to put them in one category or the other.

Deep passing game

No one who owns a sports car wants to drive it like a minivan. And no one who employs Josh Allen wants to turn him into a control artist. Even though the average pass attempt is expected to be shorter in 2024, Allen and the Bills will retain some of their old identity.

The most notable addition to Buffalo’s passing attack is rookie Keon Coleman, 6-foot-9, 200 pounds. Florida State’s star player needs a year or two of development to reach his ceiling, but he will contribute instantly. Coleman’s size and speed are a welcome addition to Buffalo’s receiving space and will pair well with Allen’s arm talent. Over time, Coleman strives to fill the void left by Diggs at the X receiver position.

In addition to Coleman, newcomers to Buffalo’s receiver room include Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Chase Claypool. These veterans are nothing more than rotational role players, but they will provide depth and occasional playmaking. Valdes-Scantling’s top-end speed stresses defenses, Hollins’ ball skills make him a trusted target and Claypool is looking to rediscover his game.

Rather than focusing on a single target, expect the Bills’ passing game to be more diverse this year. No player should be regularly targeted by more than 10 players, but their roles and play styles make for a well-balanced scheme. It’s up to offensive coordinator Joe Brady to put all the pieces together.

Main image: Jamie Germano – USA Today Sports