NFL writer projects peak production for Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

When the Buffalo Bills traded for tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, they did so in hopes of landing a needle mover, a potentially destructive pass catcher who could ultimately have a Travis. Kelce-like impact on the team’s aerial attack.

If an NFL analyst is to be believed, this level of impact could come as early as his second campaign.

NFL.com writer Bucky Brooks recently put together an “All-Breakout” offensive team for the 2024 NFL season, compiling a list of young players from around the league who he believes are ready to impress at during the coming season. Brooks included the Buffalo wide receiver as the only tight end on the roster, projecting the 24-year-old to finish the 2024 campaign as the league leader in receptions and yards at his position.

Related: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid needs efficiency boost

“With Buffalo poised to regularly use ’12’ personnel, Kincaid could become a household name as a dominant pass catcher up the middle,” Brooks wrote. “Even though the second-year pro will share the spotlight with fellow forward Dawson Knox, the 6-foot-4, 240-pounder should thrive as Josh Allen attacks defenses with an inside-out approach that places the Bills TEs in prominent roles . .

“Kincaid took a little time to get his footing as a rookie, but still finished the season with solid numbers: 73 catches for 673 yards and two scores. And I expect a big increase in production this fall. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up leading all tight ends in receptions and yards in 2024.”

It’s an encouraging (if tentative) prediction for Kincaid, whose promising rookie campaign may have been overshadowed by the dominance of Detroit Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Kincaid, but not enough as impactful as a second-team All-Pro, has been remarkable in his own right, with his 673 receiving yards during the 2023 season ranking as the second-highest yardage total ever constructed by a Buffalo tight end (Paul Costa ranks first with 726 yards in 1967).

It’s fair – as Brooks alludes to – to expect a significant increase in Kincaid’s production given his projected ascension to a larger offensive role. The Bills parted ways with stalwart pass catchers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis during the offseason, leaving the team with a revamped passing attack that features Kincaid and third-year receiver Khalil Shakir as two of its only returning contributors . Given the already significant role Kincaid played last year (he was targeted 91 times), his impact on these opportunities, and the sudden availability of even more targetsit’s fair to expect the tight band to burst onto the scene in the new year.

Related: Ascending Bills WR Earns Spot on NFL Analyst’s ‘All-Breakout’ Team

Brooks doesn’t provide numbers on what kind of production he expects from Kincaid, but over the past five seasons, the NFL’s leader in receptions as a tight end has averaged 107 catches, while the leader in receiving Receiving yards at this position averaged about 1,273 yards. Buffalo has never employed a tight end who has even sniffed this level of production.

Kincaid – as Brooks notes – will have to “share the marquee” with Knox, but that’s not a particularly major hurdle considering the sophomore has already firmly supplanted him on the depth chart. Although Knox dealt with injuries throughout the 2023 season, he recorded career lows in receptions (22) and yards (186), his production dropping (at least partially) due to the presence and the emergence of the then recruit.

Kincaid emerging as the most productive tight end in football would not only silence any unwarranted doubters, but also keep Buffalo’s offense moving as its revamped pass-catching group adjusts to life in a Joe Brady.

—Benefit from free bill coverage Buffalo Bills on SI—