Atlanta Braves Trade Deadline Primer: Top 3 Storylines to Watch

BALTIMORE – With seven weeks until the trade deadline, the six-time defending NL East champion Atlanta Braves still have some time to decide where they most need to bolster their roster if they are hoping to defeat the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies or at least secure a wild-card spot.

But do they really need more time to decide? Probably not, considering their paltry .638 OPS and .358 slugging percentage over the last 39 games before Tuesday, the lowest OPS in the majors and the fourth-lowest slugging percentage for this span that began on April 27.

This has been more than perplexing for the Braves and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, especially considering that Atlanta, with essentially the same cast, tied a major league record with 307 homers in 2023 and became the first team in MLB history to hit .500 or better (.501) for a full season.

The anemic offense was by far the main reason the Braves lost 22 of the last 39 games before Tuesday, a disjointed streak unlike anything the Braves and their fans were used to seeing during their recent era of division titles, with over 95 wins. and a World Series championship in 2021.

With that in mind, here are three early scenarios that could shape what Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos does between now and the July 30 trade deadline:

Corner outfield bat(s)

Barring a big push from Adam Duvall, who has filled in in right field since Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending knee injury on May 12, the Braves appear likely to prioritize added at least one corner outfielder.

Left fielder Jarred Kelenic has returned to production since making adjustments in his swing and setup and moving into the everyday lineup after serving in a platoon with Duvall before Acuña’s injury, so finding someone to split time with Duvall at one of the corners could be a desired move for Atlanta.

But if Kelenic returns to his early season wrestling form, adding an everyday outfielder and having Duvall and Kelenic platoon again is another option.

The problem with that: At least a half-dozen other contending teams are expected to pursue corner outfielders, with the Phillies likely to go after one or more outfielders from the Chicago White Sox as part of a possible Southside fire sale that could involve some or all of the players. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Tommy Pham.

Jarred Kelenic has moved into a regular spot in the Braves’ lineup after some early season struggles. (Brett Davis / USA Today)

Robert is a center fielder on a team-friendly contract that runs through 2025 and includes two option years beyond that, so he doesn’t seem like a likely match for the Braves. They are committed to Michael Harris II at center for the long term, and his current struggles have done nothing to change that.

Jiménez wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade over what the Braves have to justify parting ways with prospects, but Pham is the type of proven big-game performer with an expiring contract who has appealed to Anthopoulos in the past. It also brings the advantage that they could use currently.

Pham is currently on the 10-day injured list with a sprained ankle, but he is expected to return soon and will no doubt be pursued by several suitors, given his .313 average and .846 OPS with six home runs in 31 career playoff games, including one home run. each last season for Arizona in the NLDS, NLCS and World Series.

Something to keep in mind: The last time the Braves lost Acuña to a season-ending knee injury was July 2021. That year, they played three games under .500 and five out of first place in early August. But after Anthopoulos completely remade the outfield with the July trades that brought in Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall, the Braves surged to another division title and didn’t slow down until as they battle their way to their first World Series title since. 1995.

How instrumental were the outfielders Anthopoulos acquired that summer?

• Duvall had 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 55 games after being traded to Atlanta.

• Pederson sparked a pearl necklace craze among Braves fans, brought great swagger to the team and hit two hit homers in the NLDS against Milwaukee.

• Rosario was named NLCS MVP after having 14 hits, including three home runs against the Dodgers.

• Soler won World Series MVP with three homers and six RBIs against the Astros.

Rotation return chatter

Offense has been the biggest, but not the only, reason for Atlanta’s seven-week stretch of baseball well below .500.

While the top three starters – Max Fried, Chris Sale, Reynaldo López – have been as solid a frontline trio as any in the majors, 40-year-old Charlie Morton has been inconsistent in the fourth spot. A rotating cast of inexperienced top prospects and other youngsters that the Braves cycled through in the back end of the rotation have been disappointing at best.

Besides these four main veteran starters, the Braves have used eight other pitchers in 16 starts, and the only ones with an ERA below 6.46 in those games are Darius Vines (4.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in two starts) and AJ Smith-Shawver, who entered the IL with an oblique strain after his scoreless start to the season.

Four have an ERA above 8.00, including prospect Spencer Schwellenbach, who is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA in two starts and will be making his third Wednesday night in Baltimore.

Rather than keeping young riders who aren’t ready or fringe major league starters throughout the rotation, the Braves seem likely to pursue a starter.

He’s not a front-line starter, since the few that might be available are all going to result in overpays from competitors in what will be a seller’s market as the deadline approaches. But a backfield starter who can give them five to seven innings of solid, if unspectacular, work every time, and help preserve the bullpen for its crucial role down the stretch and in the postseason .

Bullpen room

The Braves began the season with four proven lefties in their bullpen for the first time in memory. Now they have two, Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee.

While AJ Minter (hip inflammation) is expected back in the next home game, Tyler Matzek missed more than a month with inflammation in his surgically repaired elbow and was transferred to the IL 60 days last week. For this reason, the Braves could look to add another left-handed reliever before the deadline.

Bummer had a respectable 3.68 ERA in 22 appearances before Tuesday, but with runners in scoring position he had allowed a .435 average (10-for-23) and a .960 OPS. Lee has a 2.30 ERA in 19 appearances, but had a .296 opponents’ average in 32 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, as well as a .733 slugging percentage and 1.027 OPS in home situations. high leverage, and a .474 average (9-for-19) by first batters faced including two doubles, two home runs and a 1.368 OPS.

Adding another proven lefty could ease Minter’s high-leverage workload down the stretch and avoid another situation where they head into the playoffs with several of their top relievers battling fatigue .

(Tommy Pham top photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)