Weather warning day: Storm line brings risk of severe weather for Tuesday

UPDATE:

Friday morning update:

One notable change in expectations this morning is the declining confidence in a storm complex moving in ahead of the cold front in central Missouri. This threat is not zero, but forecasts are increasingly indicating that the storm complex will stay mostly north of central Missouri throughout the morning. For most of us, that means thunderstorms will arrive later. This scenario would push the arrival time in the West to late morning or midday, with a similar end time since the cold front will be the only source of thunderstorms.

This may increase the likelihood of stronger storms further west, as there is more time for instability to develop. This is why you will see a small shift in the SPC forecast.

BLOG:

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day due to the possibility of severe storms on Friday.

A warm front continues to move through Mid-Missouri tonight, bringing warmer temperatures overnight as clouds begin to spread. A complex of strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front tomorrow morning, bringing strong winds and hail by late morning. If the atmosphere can clear after the morning line, a few severe storms could develop again in the afternoon. In the Southeast, the threat will pass by early evening.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, risk level 2 out of 5 applies to large parts of central Missouri.

Instability is expected to increase overnight into tomorrow morning, giving storms the power they need to maintain their strength as they move through the region. Wind shear will not be quite as strong at low elevations, so the threat of tornadoes will be low despite the higher risk of damaging winds.

Storms are likely to form to the west tomorrow morning, moving toward Columbia and Jefferson City between 10 and 11 a.m. Once those pass, a few more storms could form, likely moving southeast along I-44 between 5 and 6 p.m.

If you are planning a vacation trip, be sure to download the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App and set it to track your location so you can receive timely warnings about severe weather along your route.