Was Houston Rockets’ Amen Thompson snubbed in Rookie of the Year voting?

You should never begin a study with a preferred conclusion in mind. This goes against the scientific method. If you ask a question, you must ask it in good faith, without assuming that you have the answer.

Recently, the results of the NBA Rookie of the Year award were announced. Victor Wembanyama received all the first place votes. This is not surprising. Wembanyama was by far the best rookie in the league.

Otherwise, Chet Holmgren was the runner-up. Brandon Miller chased after him. Fair enough. Amen Thompson surely landed in the top six, right?

Fake. Wembanyama, Holmgren and Miller were clearly in the top three. We have to ask: Did Thompson deserve votes against Jaquez Jr., Podziemski or Lively II? So we decided to answer this question using data.

We’ll look at some numbers here. We’ll rank each of Thompson, Jaquez Jr., Podziemski and Lively II based on value over replacement player (VORP) and box plus/minus (BPM).

For the uninitiated, VORP is a box score estimate of points per 100 team possessions that a player contributes above a replacement level player. BPM similarly tries to weigh a player against an average rotation player.

In other words, each stat attempts to measure how much better a player is than an average NBA player. Still, advanced stats aren’t for everyone, so we’ll also look at each player’s base stats for 75 possessions. Per 75 is generally considered the best measure of individual statistics because on average an NBA starter will play 75 possessions in a game.

Without delay…

VORP

Amen Thompson: 1.3

Brandin Podziemski: 0.9

Derrick Lively II: 0.8

Jaime Jáquez Jr.: -0.1

time delay

Amen Thompson: 1.8

Derrick Lively II: 0.5

Brandin Podziemski: -0.1

Jaime Jaquez Jr.: -1.9

Statistics for 75 possessions

Amen Thompson:

15.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks

Jaime Jáquez Jr.

15.75 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.4 blocks

Brandin Podziemski

12.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks

Derrick LivelyII

13.4 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.2 blocks

Numbers tell a story. They tell the story of a rookie who was strangely overlooked in the voting process for league awards.

We’re not trying to knock anyone on this list. Each of these young men has impressive potential. Still, VORP and BPM suggest that Thompson had far more impact than his competitors.

Which give?

In the case of Lively II, we can understand to some extent. He played a vital role for a serious title contender. Voters may have chosen to reward his role in the Mavericks’ success.

This does not suit Podziemski. Sure, the Warriors have won five more games than the Rockets. That alone shouldn’t make up for the fact that Thompson’s statistical profile is considerably more impressive.

This argument is twofold for Jaquez. His Heat have won the same number of games as the Warriors – in the Eastern Conference. Thompson was better than Jaquez by every statistical measure, and when scheduling difficulties are taken into account, the Rockets arguably had a better season than the Heat.

So, we ask again:

Which give?

Thompson suffered an injury mid-season. He may have lost a few votes due to his availability. Still, that seems like a flimsy explanation for a player who appeared in 62 games.

Here’s a simpler explanation: the voters were wrong. In the end, it is of no consequence. Thompson is going to have a tremendous NBA career.

We are already comfortable drawing this conclusion.