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What Sengun’s lack of extension could mean for Houston

Theo

There have been no extensions yet for Houston’s two promising 2021 draft picks: Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. It’s worth noting that both players would enter restricted free agency next summer without contract extensions. What are the reasons for that? What are the risks? Indeed, is it possible that they’re holding onto one largely because of an unwillingness to deal the other?

What Sengun’s lack of extension could mean for Houston

Alperen Sengun was 15 players away from making an All-Star team last season. Jalen Green wasn’t there. So far, Sengun seems like arguably the best player in their draft despite being the 16th pick. Scottie Barnes has also undoubtedly impressed in his short career, making an All-Star team in 2024. He was rewarded with a max contract extension almost as soon as it was possible.

But maybe the Rockets’ management isn’t overly concerned about comparisons between Sengun and the former Rookie of the Year. Maybe they’re more concerned about comparisons between Sengun and his teammate, Jalen Green. Ime Udoka’s meritocracy might not work as well when one of the key creators looks askance at his co-star, wondering why management is playing favorites. The problem is, Green hasn’t done enough yet to show he’s anywhere near deserving of a max contract.

No extension for Jalen or (by extension) Sengun?

Green won player of the month honors, averaging over 28 points per game. But that was March, which is about the time of year when strange things start to happen. People may remember what the immediate aftermath of Kevin Durant’s trade to Phoenix did to Mikal Bridges’ production. That wasn’t the case at all the following season. Green’s apparent surge came as the team was competing to get back into the play-in race. But once the team got back into the race and had to face one of the other contenders, Green got a bad cramp.

Sengun was out at the time due to a season-ending injury. Naturally, that’s never going to increase your value as an asset. In general, though, Sengun fits an archetype known for his durability. While he’s obviously a remarkably tall human being, he’s not the total physical anomaly that an injury-prone Kristaps Porzingis is. Typically, players over six feet tall tend not to have long healthy careers. The Rockets know this firsthand from their experiences with Ralph Sampson and Yao Ming. For the sake of the league’s overall novelty, fans everywhere are hoping Victor Wembanyama is an exception.

But the fact is, Sengun doesn’t have those particular issues. He also has a decidedly grounded game, which is counterintuitive. Centers who spend a lot of time in the air also spend a lot of time landing. Every time they do, usually with various body parts of other players conspiring to get in their way, they’re at risk of some sort of injury. But Sengun is more like Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Domantas Sabonis, or even LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s about as injury-risky as you can ask of a big man, so his contract extension would also carry minimal risk.

Which Sengun kidnappers would an extension keep at bay?

But Houston thinks it has found another way to limit the risk. Currently, few teams are expected to have significant salary cap space next offseason. In a troubling sign of the irony, one of those teams is the Brooklyn Nets.

For the Nets to be interested in such a trade, they would have to be looking to accelerate their rebuild. That would be even if they were able to get some of their own picks back from Houston, a prerequisite to trading Bridges. That wouldn’t be completely counterproductive, though, because some of the picks they gave up for their year and a half of James Harden are still out of their control. And why not defer to the team that controls them instead?

But Houston might consider that an unlikely scenario, especially since the Nets still appear committed to the last remaining survivor of their superteam attempts in Nic Claxton. In the meantime, those other teams don’t currently appear to have the capacity to accept a max offer. Of course, there are all sorts of moves teams can make between now and then that would allow them to present themselves as threats to Sengun’s services. But it stands to reason that if Sengun ends up being so obviously worth a max that other teams free up cap space to offer him one, Houston may simply choose to match it.

Worst case scenario

Gordon Hayward’s departure from the Utah Jazz is a good recent example of how bad things can get for a team. As Hayward neared the end of his rookie contract, the Jazz forced him to seek out the best offer available before matching it and retaining his services. This ordeal reportedly contributed to Hayward’s decision to later leave the team as a free agent. It’s certainly intriguing to wonder what might have happened had Hayward stayed with the Jazz. There’s a possibility that he could avoid his disastrous season-ending leg injury in the opening round while also making room for Donovan Mitchell to emerge. By not offering Sengun an extension now, will Houston be forced to consider similar (hopefully less horrific) hypotheses in the future?

The last word

Sengun himself has commented on the situation. He says so far that he is leading management without hard feelings about the delay. His play on the field confirms that he is a player who likes to be challenged. But without an extension (and Sengun’s unorthodox concerns about his fitness), trade rumors will hound him throughout the season. Whether that will sour his relationship with the organization remains to be seen. It’s even possible that he will make it his mission to become a definitive player with a max contract by midseason, forcing management to act. Houston is probably doing the sensible thing by playing it safe. It’s up to Sengun to prove that the sensible thing to do would be to extend his stay as long as possible.

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