Jammu and Kashmir: Rise in attacks brings fear to quieter parts of Himalayan region

On June 9, one of the deadliest attacks in years took place in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir.

Nine Hindu pilgrims were killed and more than 30 people injured when militants opened fire on a bus en route to a shrine in the region.

The shelling in Reasi, one of ten districts in Jammu, is one of numerous attacks on the army and civilians in the region in recent months.

Violence is nothing new in this picturesque region, but a recent trend is worrying experts: the center of militant activity appears to be shifting from the Kashmir Valley to the comparatively less affected region of Jammu.

The Himalayan region of Kashmir has long been a source of conflict between India and Pakistan. Since 1947, the two nuclear-armed neighbors have fought two wars and a limited conflict over the predominantly Muslim territory, which both countries claim but only partially control.

An armed insurgency against Delhi’s rule in the Indian-administered region has claimed thousands of lives since 1989.

The Indian government says violence has decreased since 2019 after it repealed a constitutional provision granting the region special autonomy.

However, there appears to have been a significant increase in violence in recent months, particularly in Jammu, raising concerns that insurgency could return to the region.

According to official figures, there have been 33 militant attacks in Jammu since 2021. In 2024 alone, there were eight attacks in the region, killing 11 soldiers and injuring 18. Civilian deaths in Jammu in In the first six months of this year there were 12, the same number as in the whole of 2023.

The attacks took place in Rajouri, Poonch, Doda, Kathua, Udhampur, Reasi and other areas of Jammu division. Like the Kashmir Valley, Jammu is close to the Line of Control, the de facto border with Pakistan. Delhi has accused Islamabad of supplying the militants with weapons, drugs and money via drones. Pakistan has not officially responded to these allegations.

According to experts, the recent wave of attacks in Jammu indicates that militant activities have spread deeper into the state.

One reason, some say, could be the high concentration of security forces and intelligence activities in the valley, which may have forced the militants to move south. Others say it is a deliberate attempt to divert the army’s attention from other strategic areas in Jammu and Kashmir.

The valley has been the epicenter of the conflict since the insurgency began. In the late 1990s, the insurgency also spilled over into Jammu, but the region has been relatively quiet since 2002.

Therefore, the rise in militant activities in Jammu since 2021 (two years after India revoked the region’s special status) and the successive attacks in the last few months have deeply unsettled the entire security apparatus in Jammu and Kashmir.

Militants armed with state-of-the-art assault rifles and well-trained in jungle warfare are reportedly using Jammu’s forests and rugged terrain to hide from security forces.

The attacks occurred in areas of Jammu province where the terrain is impassable and road connectivity is poor, making it difficult for security forces to reach the scene in time.

Retired Colonel Bhuwanesh Thapa, father of a soldier killed in Doda last week, told reporters that his son had called him before leaving for the search operation and his team had prepared for a six- to seven-hour march to reach the spot.

Shesh Paul Vaid, a former police chief who was involved in anti-insurgency operations in the Valley, believes the rise in militant attacks in Jammu is a ploy to divert “attention” from Kashmir.

He also attributes the rise in violence to a “well-thought-out policy” by China and Pakistan aimed at stretching India’s armed forces.

Like Pakistan, China also has a disputed border with India in the Himalayan region. It is called the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and runs near Ladakh, a mountainous area east of Jammu and Kashmir.

India has reportedly been forced to deploy additional troops to the cold desert since 2020 due to the conflict with China in the Ladakh region. These forces have reportedly been withdrawn from Jammu, leaving the region vulnerable to militant activities.

India’s strategic community has long feared the prospect of a two-front war along its northern and western borders. Experts believe that any military cooperation between Pakistan and China would overwhelm India’s defense capabilities.

“The troop reduction (in Jammu) is having an effect. The militants are taking advantage of it,” said Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda, a former military commander.

Lt. Col. Suneel Bartwal, an army spokesman in Jammu, told the BBC that the army had carried out a series of “joint and coordinated operations” with the police to eliminate “foreign terrorists.” He added that a number of measures had been taken to improve synergy among the various security agencies in the region.

Some experts also point out that the Indian intelligence network in Jammu is less developed than in Kashmir, due to the relative calm there and the fewer number of violent incidents since 2002.

Political analyst Zafar Choudhary says that for the past three decades, counter-insurgency specialists have been stationed in Kashmir, not Jammu.

“They (the armed forces) have learned the terrain and topography of the Kashmir Valley over the years, (but) not much about Jammu,” he says.