Can Zach Benson make a leap forward in his second season with the Sabres?

Zach Benson burst onto the NHL scene as an 18-year-old and is looking to make an even bigger impact for the Buffalo Sabres in his second season. After the dust settles from the NHL Draft, free agency and trade, the Sabres appear to be banking on an uptick in production from their 2023 first-round pick. Unless Buffalo can add a top-six forward via trade, Benson is primed to take on a bigger scoring role for the club.

With the Sabres’ current roster, Benson and newcomer Jason Zucker will occupy the second- and third-line left wing spots. Zucker has been a consistent scorer, though his consistency from season to season is questionable. Benson had 11 goals and 30 points in 71 games last season.

Benson’s strong suit in his rookie season was his drill-check and defensive responsibility. He was excellent in a stopper role on a line with Jordan Greenway, especially when centered by Dylan Cozens. The Ryan McLeod trade brings another strong defensive presence to the group and could end up being a Benson-Greenway deal.

Regardless of who Benson plays with, being selected 13th overall implies a high offensive potential. In theory, we should see a significant increase over 30 points. To better understand what to expect, let’s look at comparable players in recent history, what they accomplished in Year 2, and whether the Sabres can expect the same.

Zach Benson Competitions

Few 18-year-olds play in the NHL immediately after being drafted, which puts Zach Benson in the elite bracket. These players are typically selected near the top of the draft, making his early debut even rarer. To make the comparisons more accurate, let’s break down the three main states of the game: even strength, power play, and penalty kill.

Uniform force

At even strength, Benson’s rookie season is most comparable to two slow-developing bigs. Alexis Lafreniere is the closest at 18, followed by Kirby Dach. These comparisons are based on rate stats and advanced metrics, suggesting a correlation greater than just offensive production.

Lafreniere had 12 goals and 21 points in 56 games as a rookie, the former first overall pick, with all points coming at even strength. Dach had eight goals and 23 points in 64 games as an 18-year-old, including 20 points at even strength. Benson outscored both teams, with 28 points at even strength.

Matthew Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov and Brady Tkachuk have recorded the three closest seasons to Benson’s among 18-year-olds in recent history, which is encouraging for the Sabres’ sophomore potential. They have recorded 35, 32 and 35 points at even strength, respectively.

So what kind of production strides have these players made at age 19?

Lafreniere dropped slightly, from 0.38 even-strength points per game to 0.37. Dach went from 0.31 to 0.44. Matthew Tkachuk had 0.46 points per game at 18 and 0.47 at 19, while his brother Brady had 0.49 and 0.51. Svechnikov went from 0.39 to a whopping 0.60 at 19.

The average improvement of 0.07 between those top five comparisons would put Benson at 38 points at even strength. That’s a solid 10-point improvement from his rookie season.

Power play

Zach Benson didn’t play much on the power play in Buffalo in 2023-24 and only managed to score two power-play points. The similarities aren’t as close because of that, but there are hints at areas where Benson can expand his overall game.

Nico Hischier is their best matchup, although he played all 82 games and received a more thorough evaluation on the power play. Hischier was a much more anticipated prospect, as he was selected first overall. He scored 20 goals in his rookie season, but only one came on the power play. He totaled six points on the power play.

The following season, Hischier nearly doubled his total, with 11 points. He got more time on the first unit and took advantage. With Jeff Skinner’s bumper role vacant, Benson could get the same opportunity. There are other more likely candidates in the running like Cozens and Jack Quinn, but the opportunity is there.

Juraj Slafkovsky is another former first-round pick and the second-most similar comparison to Benson’s power-play analysis. Slafkovsky had two power-play points in 39 games as a rookie before catapulting to 14 points last season.

David Pastrnak, Svechnikov and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are the other 18-year-olds who most closely compare themselves to the power play. Pastrnak didn’t get many opportunities to play on the power play until he was 20. His career took off from there.

Svechnikov’s power play performance jumped from five to 20 points in his second season. Kotkaniemi still struggles for power play time and has never recorded more than five points with a man up in his first four seasons.

It remains to be seen whether Benson will have a bigger role on the power play. It’s hard to predict what Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff and assistant coach Seth Appert have in mind to improve on a lackluster performance last season. If Benson remains on the second unit as a non-essential player, it’s hard to see more than five power-play points in his future.

Penalty for numerical inferiority

Few 18-year-olds jump straight into the NHL in a defensive role, so it’s hard to find close comparisons to Zach Benson on the penalty kill. Isac Lundestrom, Tyson Jost, Dach and Hischier were the closest to Benson in terms of performance and role with one player down.

Lundestrom and Jost are considered reliable lower-tier players, and Hischier is a perennial Selke contender at this point in his career. Dach has dealt with a lot of injuries, but he’s had more of an impact offensively than defensively, though he’s also good on the penalty kill.

Benson wasn’t as good as those four on the penalty kill, but he had the attitude and instincts to thrive in that role.

Zach Benson Screening

Zach Benson’s second season with the Sabres should see an increase in his production, but don’t expect a dramatic jump. After 1,000 season simulations using PuckLuck’s player projection model, half of those simulations fell between 27 and 42 points. Fifty percent of his goal totals fell between 8 and 16.

It’s important to note that development isn’t always linear, although Benson’s 18-year-old comparisons suggest a promising future. These simulations also vary based on games played and playing time, as injuries can occur and playing time can vary based on lineups and usage.

That said, he has scored 20 or more goals about 15% of the time. He has also topped 50 points about the same percentage. So there is upside potential, but there is also downside risk.

Benson is expected to start in a midfield role, which would make Cozens and McLeod his most common pivots. Quinn, Greenway and Zucker are expected to play on his other wing. Given the increased production of his teammates, Benson should be closer to his upper limit than his lower limit, statistically speaking.

PuckLuck projects he would total 14 goals and 39 points in 70 games, which would surpass his rookie season by three goals and nine points in one fewer game. That represents an increase from 0.42 points per game to 0.55 points per game. That’s a bigger jump than Lafreniere and the Tkachuk brothers saw from age 18 to 19. That jump would mirror Dach’s even-strength growth at that age, and only Svechnikov has improved his production more.

If you’re hoping Benson will become a top-six forward overnight, it’s probably not going to happen. That’s part of the reason the Sabres are looking to add one via trade. He should be able to take on more responsibility, though, and the Sabres will need to win the goal difference battle by relying on his defensive abilities. Any additional production will be a bonus.