The southwest of the Gulf is on alert due to new tropical developments

As a new disturbance moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, conditions will be favorable to spawn a tropical depression or tropical storm, just days after Alberto formed in the same region, AccuWeather meteorologists say. The system will bring another dose of heavy rain to northeastern Mexico and parts of southern Texas.

“This new feature we’re observing in the southwestern Gulf is a disturbance in the Central America Gyre that’s breaking away this weekend and rolling west-northwest,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s senior tropical meteorologist.

This image shows the tropical rainstorm over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday afternoon, June 22, 2024. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)

A vortex is a large, slowly rotating low-pressure area that often intensifies showers and thunderstorms within its area of ​​influence. Vortexes over Central America and southern Mexico are common at this time of year and can contribute to the formation of tropical storms or hurricanes over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Pacific.

The system has a high probability of developing into a tropical depression or storm. The southwestern Gulf system could become the second such system of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The next two names on the list for 2024 are Beryl and Chris.

As this system approaches the northeastern coast of Mexico, it will bring heavy rainfall and coastal impacts such as storm surges and rip currents to many of the areas affected by Alberto. The focus of this new storm will be northeastern Mexico and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

DaSilva explained that the impacts of this system along the central and northern Texas coast could be significantly less than Alberto’s because this new system is a bit more compact and may track a bit further south into Mexico. Alberto’s broad circulation brought significant storm surge as far north as the Texas coast.

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However, even a smaller storm surge can cause flooding problems along the Texas coast, especially because some protective buffers may be damaged as a result of Alberto and access roads may need to be repaired.

Rainfall of 10 to 20 centimeters is expected across the northeast of Mexico. Some coastal areas and inland areas on the eastern slopes of the mountains are expected to receive 20 to 30 centimeters. In some places, the amounts may be even higher. Since some of these areas were hit by rainfall similar to that in Alberto just a few days earlier, the risk of flash floods and landslides is significantly higher.

Parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley in Texas may experience sudden flooding due to ongoing drought, but also another dose of beneficial rain.

Beach and boating enthusiasts should prepare for rapidly deteriorating conditions this weekend. As the center moves over open waters of the southwestern Gulf after crossing Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, development could continue rapidly due to increasing winds and waves.

As the southwestern Gulf system moves in, the Atlantic could become calm again for several days. But as tropical activity subsides, AccuWeather forecasters predict the Atlantic will become a hot spot with a record number of tropical storms and hurricanes later this summer and into the fall.

Rapid intensification can occur in many tropical systems. If this occurs close to land, it can significantly increase the risk to life and property.

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