close
close

Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Receiver’s Plea for Return

Theo

Miscellaneous facts

July 17, 2024

Buffalo receiver pleads for return

Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis enter as a free agent. They’re going to have a new No. 1 receiver, and there are plenty of candidates. Rookie Keon Coleman is the first choice. Curtis Samuel, signed as a free agent, has the most experience. And then there’s Khalil Shakir.

There are other possibilities (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool), but I think those guys are mostly fighting to be role players. Coleman, Samuel, Shakir – those are the real No. 1s. I talked about Samuel here, but Shakir is a good chance, too. (Ian also talked about him here last week.)

For starters, Shakir finished strong. He caught 6 of 105 passes in the Week 18 win at Miami, then caught touchdowns in both playoff games, including a truly remarkable one against Kansas City. Ten receptions for 75 yards and those touchdowns in both games. Maybe his late-game play made the decisions between Diggs and Davis easier.

Shakir wasn’t selected until the fifth round in 2022, but he was impressively efficient in his attempts last season. He notably caught over 86% of the passes thrown his way. That’s the best reception rate by a first- or second-year receiver (minimum 40 targets) in the last 10 years. A pretty solid performance.

Over the past decade, 31 other receivers have caught at least 70 percent of the passes thrown their way in one of their first two seasons. I thought I’d see how they fared a year later. There were a few success stories.

The chart shows the 32 receivers who have reached that catch rate in either of their first two seasons since 2014. That includes three other players last year: another sophomore, Wan’Dale Robinson, and a pair of rookies (Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers).

Of the other 28 players, over a third (10) have had top-20 numbers in PPR leagues a year later. Eight of them have finished in the top 10 at the position. I’m not saying Shakir is headed for those numbers, but a pretty decent success rate for players who have shown some skill/efficiency in their offense over these first two seasons.

HIGH WIDEOUT CATCH RATE, ONE YEAR LATER (2014-2023)
Year Player Objective Rec Yds Avg. TD Ctch Following Rk
2014 Brandin Cooks, New Zealand 69 53 550 10.4 4 76.8% 78-1173-8 ten
2014 Jarvis Landry, Mia. 112 84 758 9.0 5 75.0% 94-1136-4 13
2014 Kenny Stills, NO 83 63 931 14.8 3 75.9% 27-440-3 82
2014 Odell Beckham, New York player 130 91 1305 14.3 12 70.0% 101-1367-10 4
2014 Tavon Austin, St.L. 44 31 242 7.8 3 70.5% 52-473-10 27
2015 Bryan Walters, Jac. 45 32 368 11.5 1 71.1% 24-231-2 103
2015 Jamison Crowder, was. 78 59 604 10.2 2 75.6% 66-789-3 32
2015 Jeremy Butler, Balt. 44 31 363 11.7 0 70.5% 2-11-0 184
2015 Tyler Lockett, Wed. 69 51 664 13.0 8 73.9% 45-555-3 56
2016 Eli Rogers, Pitt. 66 48 594 12.4 3 72.7% 18-149-1 123
2016 Michael Thomas, NO 121 92 1137 12.4 9 76.0% 125-1405-9 6
2016 Stefon Diggs, Minister. 112 84 903 10.8 3 75.0% 64-849-8 19
2016 Tyreek Hill, Kansas 83 61 593 9.7 12 73.5% 75-1183-8 8
2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. 79 58 917 15.8 8 73.4% 42-552-3 63
2017 Sterling Shepard, NYG 84 59 731 12.4 2 70.2% 66-872-4 32
2017 Trent Taylor, SF 60 43 430 10.0 2 71.7% 26-215-1 113
2018 Cooper Kupp, LAR 55 40 566 14.2 6 72.7% 94-1161-10 5
2018 Ryan Switzer, Pitt. 44 36 253 7.0 1 81.8% 8-27-0 165
2019 Greg Ward, Phil. 40 28 254 9.1 1 70.0% 7-95-3 134
2020 Deebo Samuel, SF 44 33 391 11.9 1 75.0% 57-802-6 31
2020 Hunter Renfrow, Louisiana 77 56 656 11.7 2 72.7% 103-1038-9 ten
2020 Jakobi Meyers, NE 81 59 729 12.4 0 72.8% 83-866-2 29
2020 Justin Jefferson, Minister. 125 88 1400 15.9 7 70.4% 128-1809-9 1
2020 Laviska Shenault, Jac. 79 58 600 10.3 5 73.4% 27-272-2 95
2021 Devin Duvernay, Balt. 47 33 272 8.2 3 70.2% 37-407-5 61
2021 Jaylen Waddle, Mia. 140 104 1015 9.8 7 74.3% 72-1014-4 34
2021 Rondale Moore, Ari. 64 54 435 8.1 1 84.4% 41-414-1 83
2022 Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detective 146 106 1161 11.0 6 72.6% 119-1515-10 3
2023 Khalil Shakir, Buff. 45 39 611 15.7 2 86.7% ??? ???
2023 Rashee Rice, KC 102 79 938 11.9 7 77.5% ??? ???
2023 Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG 78 60 525 8.8 2 76.9% ??? ???
2023 Flowers Zay, Balt. 108 77 858 11.1 6 71.3% ??? ???

I was impressed with Shakir late in the season. Let’s see how the reports go in training camp, but he’s definitely on my radar for a surprise in 2024.

–Andy Richardson

Related Posts