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Khalil Shakir – Shakir could be Buffalo’s best receiver

Theo

Miscellaneous facts

July 4, 2024

Shakir could be Buffalo’s best receiver

I’m interested in Khalil Shakir. He was effective despite his limited opportunities last year, and the Bills are in the process of overhauling their receiving corps. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, so they’ll have a new top player this year.

Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman appear to be the other leading candidates. Samuel has had success with the Panthers and Commanders and is their most expensive player at the position. They selected Coleman with the first pick of the second round after trading down a few times. (The receivers were selected with the two picks the Bills traded — Xavier Worthy at No. 28 and Xavier Legette at No. 32.)

I think Shakir is comparable to those guys. He’s not as well known (he came into the league as a fifth-round pick and hasn’t really played much), but he’s been around for two years and has shown some ability to work effectively with Josh Allen.

I remember Shakir playing well in the playoffs as a rookie, catching 5 passes for 91 yards. And he was surprisingly efficient last year. He only caught 45 passes, but he caught 39 of them. He did some really impressive post-catch work, including a touchdown against Pittsburgh in the playoffs.

Over the past 31 years, only 20 receivers with at least 40 targets have averaged more than 12 yards per passing target (not yards per reception, but yards per play – including incomplete passes), and Shakir is among that group.

WIDE RECEIVERS AVERAGING 12 YARDS PER TARGET
Year Player Objective Rec Yds YPT TD
2008 Devery Henderson, NO 56 32 793 14.2 3
2006 Devery Henderson, NO 54 32 745 13.8 5
2018 Tyler Lockett, Wed. 70 57 965 13.8 ten
2023 Khalil Shakir, Buff. 45 39 611 13.6 2
1999 Tim Dwight, Atl. 50 32 669 13.4 7
2011 Jordy Nelson, GB 96 68 1263 13.2 15
2019 Mecole Hardman, KC 41 26 538 13.1 6
2010 Mike Wallace, Pitt. 98 60 1257 12.8 ten
2013 Kenny Stills, NO 50 32 641 12.8 5
2023 Brandon Aiyuk, SF 105 75 1342 12.8 7
1993 John Taylor, SF 74 56 940 12.7 5
2019 AJ Brown, ten. 84 52 1051 12.5 8
2014 DeSean Jackson, was. 95 56 1169 12.3 6
2018 Robert Foster, Buff. 44 27 541 12.3 3
2010 Patrick Crayton, SD 42 28 514 12.2 1
2011 Malcolm Floyd, South Dakota 70 43 856 12.2 5
1999 Az-Zahir Hakim, St.L. 56 36 677 12.1 8
2019 Stefon Diggs, Minister. 94 63 1130 12.0 6
2002 Dennis Northcutt, key. 50 38 601 12.0 5
2001 Brian Finneran, Atl. 41 23 491 12.0 3

At the same time, it’s also reasonable to put the brakes on a bit. Of those previous receivers, 11 were Shakir-like guys (low-usage players perhaps looking to transition from useful contributor to reliable performer), and exactly none of those guys actually hit that milestone. Of the 11 who didn’t rank in the top 30 in overall production (using PPR scoring), none advanced into the top 30 the following year.

Five of those 11 players finished at least 33rd-39th in PPR production at the position, making them worthy of being drafted in mainstream fantasy leagues. So it seems reasonable to rank Shakir among the top 50 receivers in drafts.

POSSIBLE BREAKOUT RECEIVERS (next year)
Year Player Objective Rec Yds YPT TD PPR Rk
2000 Az-Zahir Hakim, St.L. 81 53 734 9.1 4 158.3 37
2000 Tim Dwight, Atl. 53 26 406 7.7 3 91.4 67
2002 Brian Finneran, Atl. 102 56 838 8.2 6 175.8 33
2003 Dennis Northcutt, key. 93 62 729 7.8 2 155.2 38
2007 Devery Henderson, NO 43 20 409 9.5 3 80.9 81
2009 Devery Henderson, NO 83 51 804 9.7 2 144.7 43
2011 Patrick Crayton, SD 34 23 248 7.3 1 85.4 81
2012 Malcolm Floyd, South Dakota 85 56 814 9.6 5 167.4 38
2014 Kenny Stills, NO 83 63 931 11.2 3 173.9 39
2019 Robert Foster, Buff. 18 3 64 3.6 0 12.3 161
2020 Mecole Hardman, KC 62 41 560 9.0 4 132.1 60
2024 Khalil Shakir, Buff. ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

—Ian Allan

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