Bills set to miss playoffs in blatant NFL record predictions

The release of the 2024 NFL schedule ushered in a flood of new talk and record-breaking predictions, some of which have been more favorable to the Buffalo Bills than others.

The Bills are coming off their fifth straight playoff appearance and fourth in which they won at least one game; the end result, however, was a familiar heartbreak, a 27-24 AFC divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The early exit prompted Buffalo to reshape its roster during the 2024 offseason, moving on from solid starters like Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse and Gabriel Davis while refocusing the roster around players younger players who can theoretically extend the team’s championship window.

And some, rightly, expect the Bills to take a step back during the 2024 campaign given the significant turnover. Maurice Moton of Bleacher Report is a member of this camp; In a recent article predicting win-loss records for each NFL team in the upcoming season, Moton predicted Buffalo would finish 9-8, with quarterback Josh Allen struggling in Diggs’ absence and the defense struggling to adapt after the departures of several starters.

Related: ESPN questions Josh Allen’s status as ‘elite quarterback’ without Stefon Diggs

“Before Buffalo acquired Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings in 2020, quarterback Josh Allen completed fewer than 57 percent of his passes and threw for just 5,163 yards, 30 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in seasons 2018 and 2019,” Moton wrote. “With Diggs, Allen played at a Pro Bowl level, accumulating at least 4,283 passing yards and 29 touchdown passes in their four seasons together. Buffalo used a second-round pick on Florida State player Keon Coleman to fill the void in its pass-catching group. But in his first year, he may not be able to elevate the passing attack like Diggs did when he arrived in Buffalo. Wide receiver Khalil Shakur and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will likely see more targets from Allen. However, the Bills’ aerial attack could face some rough patches during a transition period.

“The Bills could be out of the AFC playoffs as Allen adjusts to the offense without Diggs and the defense relies on role players to be more productive in bigger roles.”

Moton also mentions the fact that the NFL’s all-time active leader Von Miller is entering his age-35 season and linebacker Matt Milano may struggle in his return after “a torn ACL and fractured leg.” (This is only partially true – Milano fractured his right tibia last season but, according to The Buffalo News, suffered “no damage to his knee ligaments”; ACL stands for anterior cruciate ligament).

While it’s true that Diggs certainly helped Allen go from glorified game manager to destructive quarterback, he’s not. THE reason for this. Allen is the primary reason for his rise, his emergence as one of the best signal callers in the league, a testament to the general maturation he has undergone throughout his career and the fundamental overhaul of his mechanics that has made him has seen him become a much more refined player. ferryman. Yes, it’s true that Allen wasn’t great before Diggs came along, but It was five years ago. It is simply ignorant to believe that the quarterback is going to become the player he was five years ago in the absence of a single receiver, regardless of the impact and talent of said receiver.

Related: Bills still ranked among elite NFL offenses despite offseason moves

That said, Moton’s concerns about Buffalo’s aerial attack aren’t necessarily unfounded, as the team is expected to rely primarily on young, unproven players. However, I wouldn’t count on Khalil Shakur to be too productive, seeing as he doesn’t exist. Khalil Shakir, on the other hand, could play an important role in the team’s receiving corps; he looked promising in one-off duties in recent years.

Moton’s misgivings about defense are a little less well-founded; Miller, yes, should be 35, but he’s a rotational passer at this point – why are we complaining about the third defensive end on the depth chart? Milan, of course, could theoretically struggle to return from injury, but history suggests he will make a full (and quick) recovery. Although the team moved on from players like Hyde, Poyer and White during the offseason, those players have missed significant time due to injuries in recent years, with the team, in White’s case, already replacing them; Buffalo’s defense, as a whole, returns nine starters.

It’s certainly possible that the Bills finish barely above .500 and miss the playoffs this upcoming season, but that seems like a pretty pessimistic and foolhardy projection based on every worst-case scenario that manifests itself. Fortunately, games are not played on paper but on the field; we’ll see the true quality of Buffalo’s roster when they take this field in September.