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Danger of severe weather tonight ahead of a dry Memorial Day

Theo

Happy Sunday evening everyone. We have one more round of severe weather ahead of us before we get a nice break from the active weather pattern. It was warm and humid again today ahead of our approaching cold front. Because of this configuration, tornado warnings have been issued through 11 p.m. tonight and there is a level 2 to 4 risk of severe weather across much of the Ozarks. While the greatest tornado danger is mainly east of the Ozarks, there is a risk of severe storms with wind gusts up to 70 mph, hailstones up to the size of baseballs, and the threat of tornadoes.

Cold front triggers another wave of storms this evening
Cold front triggers another wave of storms this evening(KY3)
First day of alert until 10am this evening due to another serious threat
First day of alert until 10am this evening due to another serious threat(KY3)

From now until about 7 or 8 p.m., isolated strong to severe storms will continue to develop and move eastward, with the threat of wind, hail, and tornadoes. After 7 or 8 p.m., storms are expected to strengthen and develop into a greater wind threat as they move toward and east of the U.S. Highway 63 corridor. Although there could still be some storms in some locations through 9 p.m., the passing cold front should put an end to our severe threat and storm chance after 10 or 11 p.m. tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening.(KY3)
The storms will move south of I-44 and east of 65 by 7 p.m. tonight.
The storms will move south of I-44 and east of 65 by 7 p.m. tonight.(KY3)
Some thunderstorms still possible until 9 p.m.
Some thunderstorms still possible until 9 p.m.(KY3)
Serious threat dealt with by 10 and 11pm tonight
Serious threat dealt with by 10 and 11pm tonight(KY3)

After tonight, we’ll have mostly clear skies on Memorial Day morning and mostly sunny skies tomorrow. After morning lows in the 60s, many highs will reach around 80 degrees. With a little drier air, this will be a very nice end to the holiday weekend.

On Memorial Day, highs drop to around 80 degrees
On Memorial Day, highs drop to around 80 degrees(KY3)

On Tuesday, I think a disturbance will stay mostly west of us in the Central and Southern Plains. However, it could be close enough to hit some spots in extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas with a few isolated thunderstorms. Nothing too crazy is expected though. With partly sunny skies and a mostly dry area, I think temperatures will rise from lows in the 10s to highs in the 25s on Tuesday.

Tuesday mostly quiet
Tuesday mostly quiet(KY3)
Upper 70s for Tuesday afternoon
Upper 70s for Tuesday afternoon(KY3)

Fortunately, temperatures will remain relatively pleasant and closer to normal for the rest of the week, with highs between 25 and 27 degrees Celsius.

Maximum temperatures will remain pleasantly warm throughout the week
Maximum temperatures will remain pleasantly warm throughout the week(KY3)

While we’ll remain calm with partly sunny skies on Wednesday, I think we’ll be brushed with some temporary disturbances in the upper atmosphere from Thursday into next weekend. These disturbances could bring a few isolated thunderstorms again on Thursday and more isolated activity through Friday and Saturday. While we may be entering our late spring/early summer pattern of almost daily thunderstorm chances starting Thursday and continuing into next weekend, I don’t see anything that could prove severe at this time. We’ll keep an eye on everything over the course of next week.

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